Sunday, January 20, 2008

Win Probabilities 2007 Conference Championships

These probabilities of victory are based on the box score stats, training on 1996-2006. Inputs include rushing and passing efficiency by yards per play, third down efficiency, sack rates, turnover rates and penalty yards. The difference between probability and result can stem from recovered fumbles, where the ball was turned over, special teams, among other things.





Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
NESD68.75469
GBNYG33.1222-3


SD@NE - The two teams were about equal in rushing efficiency. They weren't that far apart in passing efficiency. New England had 3 picks and a recovered fumble; San Diego had 2 picks and a recovered fumble. New England, however, was much better on third downs, converting 53.84%, compared to San Diego's 25% efficiency. If San Diego had converted half of their third downs, they would have had a 57% chance of winning the game.

NYG@GB - Similarly, in this game, the Packers were the more efficient team overall but converted only 1 of 10 third downs. Despite 5 fumbles by the Giants (though only one was lost), Green Bay still had less than a 1 in 3 shot of winning the game. Converting 3 third downs would have given them a 51% chance of winning the game. Without Favre's 2 interceptions, however, Green Bay would have had a 68% chance of winning.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have been exploring for a little bit for any high quality articles or weblog posts in this kind
of house . Exploring in Yahoo I ultimately stumbled upon this web site.
Reading this information So i'm happy to show that I have an incredibly good uncanny feeling I discovered just what I needed. I such a lot for sure will make sure to don?t disregard this website and provides it a glance regularly.
Here is my webpage sex tube

Anonymous said...

Greetings! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and tell you I truly enjoy reading your
posts. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that go over the same subjects?

Thanks a ton!
Have a look at my web site In Ever Possible Position

Anonymous said...

Hey there would you mind stating which blog platform you're working with? I'm
planning to start my own blog in the near future but I'm having a difficult time deciding between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your layout seems different then most blogs and I'm looking for
something completely unique. P.S Sorry for being off-topic but I had to ask!
My webpage - high quality beats by dr. dre headphones

Anonymous said...

This site was... how do you say it? Relevant!
! Finally I've found something that helped me. Thanks a lot!
Also see my page - Disable Pocket-dialing

Anonymous said...

I will right away snatch your rss as I can not in finding
your email subscription link or newsletter service.

Do you've any? Kindly permit me know so that I may just subscribe. Thanks.
my webpage: contractors Orlando

Anonymous said...

Nice post. I learn something new and challenging on blogs I stumbleupon everyday.

It's always exciting to read articles from other authors and practice a little something from other websites.
My site - cs

Anonymous said...

I'll immediately take hold of your rss feed as I can't in finding your e-mail subscription link or e-newsletter service.
Do you've any? Please let me recognize so that I may subscribe. Thanks.
Feel free to visit my webpage ... free flirt chat

Anonymous said...

Malaysia & Singapore & brunei ultimate internet blogshop for wholesale & quantity korean
accessories, accessories, earstuds, choker, rings, trinket, bracelet &
hair add-ons. Promotion 35 % wholesale price cut. Ship Worldwide
My page :: unemployment ohio

Anonymous said...

I usually do not leave a leave a response, however
after reading through a bunch of responses on this page "Win Probabilities 2007 Conference Championships".
I actually do have some questions for you if it's allright. Is it simply me or do a few of these comments look like they are written by brain dead visitors? :-P And, if you are posting on additional social sites, I would like to follow you. Would you list of the complete urls of your public pages like your Facebook page, twitter feed, or linkedin profile?
My weblog - ncesc

Anonymous said...

Hi there Dear, are you really visiting this web page daily, if so after that you
will without doubt get good knowledge.
Check out my web blog : penilarge cena

Anonymous said...

This is a topic that's close to my heart... Take care! Where are your contact details though?

My blog: adventure chiang mai

Anonymous said...

A fascinating discussion is definitely worth comment.
I think that you need to write more about this topic, it
may not be a taboo matter but typically folks don't talk about such topics. To the next! All the best!!

Visit my web page - Arabic Books

Anonymous said...

I read this post completely concerning the resemblance of latest and earlier technologies, it's amazing article.

My web page; http://www.xxxmoviegalls.com

double blanket cover said...

I have been exploring for a little bit for any high quality articles or weblog posts in this kind
tailoring work orders ,
shirt stitching in karachi ,