Sunday, January 20, 2008

Win Probabilities 2007 Conference Championships

These probabilities of victory are based on the box score stats, training on 1996-2006. Inputs include rushing and passing efficiency by yards per play, third down efficiency, sack rates, turnover rates and penalty yards. The difference between probability and result can stem from recovered fumbles, where the ball was turned over, special teams, among other things.





Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
NESD68.75469
GBNYG33.1222-3


SD@NE - The two teams were about equal in rushing efficiency. They weren't that far apart in passing efficiency. New England had 3 picks and a recovered fumble; San Diego had 2 picks and a recovered fumble. New England, however, was much better on third downs, converting 53.84%, compared to San Diego's 25% efficiency. If San Diego had converted half of their third downs, they would have had a 57% chance of winning the game.

NYG@GB - Similarly, in this game, the Packers were the more efficient team overall but converted only 1 of 10 third downs. Despite 5 fumbles by the Giants (though only one was lost), Green Bay still had less than a 1 in 3 shot of winning the game. Converting 3 third downs would have given them a 51% chance of winning the game. Without Favre's 2 interceptions, however, Green Bay would have had a 68% chance of winning.

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