Monday, January 7, 2008

Predictions 2007 Divisional Round

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
JAX @ NE5.210565.7171
SD @ IND7.574774.7456
NYG @ DAL6.428770.6450
SEA @ GB4.250064.4811

Last week, my predictions and the system's predictions went 2 for 4.

Let's take a look at the matchups I didn't see coming.

Rush Off: NYG - 4.5940 yards per carry (3rd), DAL - 4.1799 ypc (9th)
Rush Def: NYG - 3.8020 ypc (9th), DAL - 3.9816 ypc (14th)
Pass Off: NYG - 5.5236 yards per pass (23rd), DAL - 7.3662 ypp (2nd)
Pass Def: NYG - 6.8706 ypp (8th), DAL - 5.4370 ypp (7th)

The Giants have the better running game, but the Cowboys have the better passing game, which is more important. That Eli Manning performed so well against the #2 pass defense in the wild card round is promising, and Terrell Owens' injury could severely limit Dallas' passing game. Tony Romo is not exactly a proven playoff quarterback either, but I'd expect some regression to the mean for Eli. The probability of him performing so well against 2 top 10 pass defenses is just really low. I'm still picking Dallas to advance.

Rush Off: SEA - 3.7837 ypc (24th), GB - 4.1160 ypc (13th)
Rush Def: SEA - 3.8957 ypc (13th), GB - 3.8732 ypc (12th)
Pass Off: SEA - 6.33233 ypp (13th), GB - 7.2752 ypp (3rd)
Pass Def: SEA - 5.7178 ypp (10th), GB - 5.9208 ypp (12th)

The Packers have a much better offense than the Seahawks, though their defenses are pretty much the same statistically. The Seahawks did plenty well against a superior pass defense in the Redskins game, and I could see an upset happening, but Brett Favre has just been too good this season. Packers win.


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