Thursday, August 2, 2007

Accuracy of Pro Football Prospectus' 2006 Win Projections

I've been curious about exactly how accurate the mean win projections in Pro Football Prospectus are, so I threw together some stats.

PFP's 2006 Mean Win Projections


  • The mean absolute error was 2.2563 games.
  • 10 projections had an error of 1 game or less.
  • 7 projections had an error of more than 1 game and at most 2 games.
  • 5 projections had an error of more than 2 games and at most 3 games.
  • 4 projections had an error of more than 3 games and at most 4 games.
  • 3 projections had an error of more than 4 games and at most 5 games.
  • The biggest errors were for New Orleans (4.1 vs. 10) and Oakland (8.0 vs. 2).
  • The smallest errors were for Houston (6.1 vs. 6), Minnesota (5.9 vs. 6), Philidelphia (9.8 vs. 10) the Giants (7.8 vs. 8).
  • The correlation coefficient of the mean win projections with actual win totals was 0.3653.

44 comments:

Miles Libbey said...

In http://footballoutsiders.com/discussion/viewtopic.php?t=146&sid=e23cbfe6b48fd7e5208a0b284a51f66c
I looked at the same topic. (and have input the data into 1 excel sheet).

(mlibbeymail-blogs a t yahoo.com)

Derek said...

Thanks for the link. I'll take a look at the over/under numbers later. I think PFP does a very good job, but at the same time, I wonder how far advanced it is in comparison to other mathematically-based predictions. Using a linear regression of expected wins (based on VOLA) and actual wins to predict next year's wins, my 2006 projections would have had a mean absolute error of 2.1299 games. The correlation of projected wins with actual wins would have been 0.2726, however. In addition, my projections ranged were all within the 6-10 range. So the system "played it safe" by sticking close to 8. Then again, my system is much more simplistic. On the other hand, even the O/U's stick to the same range.

I think FO's win projections are very good, but I don't think they're miles ahead of everyone else in the prediction business, which is not their bag anyway.

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