Predictions 2007 Week 13 and Accuracy Report

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Quick Summary of Accuracy
LAST WEEK
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 12 out of 16
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 12 out of 16
Linear regression, unadjusted: 12 out of 16
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 10 out of 16

YEAR SO FAR
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 67.3611%
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 65.9722%
Linear regression, unadjusted: 63.8889%
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 62.5000%

Full accuracy numbers after the jump...

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
NYJ @ MIA	6.9610	73.5104
NE @ BAL	-7.6674	27.6416
CIN @ PIT	9.1425	77.4754
JAX @ IND	8.6228	77.0392
HOU @ TEN	4.1136	63.4817
SD @ KC	0.4279	52.3628
DEN @ OAK	-0.0398	44.1519
GB @ DAL	6.7377	71.4024
SEA @ PHI	2.9944	62.0521
BUF @ WAS	5.8755	70.7703
NYG @ CHI	-1.1950	45.3762
DET @ MIN	5.7047	67.4535
SF @ CAR	4.3467	64.5604
TB @ NO	-2.5203	41.0657
CLE @ ARI	2.6273	60.2216
ATL @ STL	0.9571	53.7558

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
NYJ @ MIA	6.0238	70.8583
NE @ BAL	-6.1271	32.5650
CIN @ PIT	10.2815	80.7850
JAX @ IND	7.2370	74.1194
HOU @ TEN	3.7828	62.2564
SD @ KC	1.3346	54.0065
DEN @ OAK	1.0261	46.2019
GB @ DAL	6.4133	71.2740
SEA @ PHI	1.2019	55.2600
BUF @ WAS	6.6218	72.0127
NYG @ CHI	-1.7237	41.8105
DET @ MIN	5.4359	65.9035
SF @ CAR	4.1349	65.0194
TB @ NO	-2.3708	42.1331
CLE @ ARI	3.2812	62.7295
ATL @ STL	1.1455	55.5421

OPPONENT-ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 67.3611%
Mean absolute error: 11.3790 points
Correlation with result: 0.3939
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.2222%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.9722%
Correlation with result: 0.3910
% of games predicted as home team wins: 75.0000%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 78.5714
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 70.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 50.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 70.5882
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 65.3846
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 87.5000


UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 63.8889%
Mean absolute error: 11.3918 points
Correlation with result: 0.3834
% of games predicted as home team wins: 70.1389%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 62.5000%
Correlation with result: 0.3780
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.5278%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 66.6667
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 64.2857
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 61.9048
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 46.8750
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 58.8235
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 80.7692
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000

Read More......

The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 12

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

I am completely baffled about the divisional games.

All Games
Home Team Win %: 55.1136%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 1.6932

Interconference
Home Team Win %: 62.5000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.3750

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 69.8413%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.6032

Intradivsion
Home Team Win %: 35.3846%
Avg. Final Score Margin: -3.1077

Read More......

Power Rankings 2007 Week 12

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	11.2441
2	DAL	11.1332
3	IND	10.6209
4	PIT	9.9642
5	TB	9.9244
6	GB	9.3945
7	MIN	9.3234
8	PHI	9.0560
9	WAS	8.8586
10	NYG	8.7037
11	SEA	8.4958
12	SD	8.4589
13	JAX	8.3526
14	TEN	8.1060
15	DEN	8.0833
16	CLE	7.7783
17	DET	7.6137
18	ARI	7.6130
19	MIA	7.6014
20	HOU	7.5289
21	CIN	7.2008
22	ATL	7.1665
23	NO	6.9120
24	KC	6.9006
25	CAR	6.8935
26	BUF	6.8154
27	BAL	6.5092
28	CHI	6.4680
29	STL	6.2714
30	NYJ	5.7587
31	SF	5.6797
32	OAK	5.5694

Power Rankings, Unadjusted
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	11.3002
2	DAL	11.2019
3	PIT	10.7758
4	IND	10.3835
5	TB	9.9057
6	MIN	9.4825
7	GB	9.4620
8	SEA	9.0465
9	PHI	8.5803
10	JAX	8.4789
11	NYG	8.4063
12	WAS	8.2131
13	SD	8.1418
14	DEN	8.1411
15	TEN	8.0375
16	ARI	7.9962
17	DET	7.9144
18	HOU	7.8943
19	CLE	7.6587
20	CIN	7.2868
21	BAL	7.2055
22	NO	7.1142
23	ATL	7.0253
24	KC	6.9362
25	CAR	6.9291
26	MIA	6.8095
27	STL	6.3635
28	BUF	6.2475
29	OAK	5.9599
30	CHI	5.8376
31	SF	5.7099
32	NYJ	5.5542

Read More......

Projected Final Standings 2007 Week 12

Using the projected win probabilities from the logistic regression power rankings, I estimated which games each team would win on the rest of their respective schedules. And then I summed the projected wins with the actual wins so far to get their projected win totals. The teams are sorted by division.

Projected Final Standings
Team	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	6
MIA	3
NE	16
NYJ	3
AFC North
BAL	4
CIN	7
CLE	10
PIT	12
AFC South
HOU	7
IND	14
JAX	10
TEN	9
AFC West
DEN	8
KC	6
OAK	3
SD	9
NFC East
DAL	15
NYG	10
PHI	9
WAS	7
NFC North
CHI	6
DET	7
GB	14
MIN	9
NFC South
ATL	4
CAR	5
NO	6
TB	12
NFC West
ARI	8
STL	3
SF	3
SEA	11

Read More......

Stats (Raw and VOLA) 2007 Week 12

This is the data I use to make my predictions and power rankings. Below are the tables for the raw stats and the values over league average for all of the inputs I use. Rush and pass stats are yards per play. See for yourself where your team's strengths and weaknesses are.

Rush offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0045)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	40.4030	5.6224
2	DEN	13.5390	4.5467
3	PHI	12.1150	4.4896
4	DAL	10.4500	4.4230
5	NYG	9.1516	4.3710
6	MIA	7.7594	4.3152
7	OAK	7.0122	4.2853
8	SF	6.4023	4.2609
9	PIT	5.2197	4.2135
10	JAX	5.2143	4.2133
11	NE	2.7461	4.1145
12	CLE	2.6434	4.1103
13	CAR	2.6076	4.1089
14	TB	2.5634	4.1071
15	IND	1.9876	4.0841
16	WAS	0.4005	4.0205
17	TEN	-0.9309	3.9672
18	BAL	-1.2058	3.9562
19	DET	-1.5298	3.9432
20	SD	-3.2023	3.8763
21	BUF	-6.7322	3.7349
22	ATL	-6.9146	3.7276
23	NYJ	-8.5510	3.6621
24	SEA	-9.6049	3.6199
25	GB	-10.4590	3.5857
26	HOU	-10.9540	3.5658
27	CIN	-11.3980	3.5481
28	STL	-12.4220	3.5071
29	NO	-12.9650	3.4853
30	ARI	-13.2270	3.4748
31	KC	-17.4340	3.3063
32	CHI	-18.6680	3.2569

Rush defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0045)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	BAL	30.4810	2.7839
2	MIN	26.1660	2.9567
3	DAL	10.1610	3.5976
4	CAR	9.4126	3.6276
5	PHI	9.1446	3.6383
6	NO	8.9258	3.6471
7	PIT	8.7232	3.6552
8	DET	7.3224	3.7113
9	TB	7.2916	3.7125
10	SF	5.6773	3.7771
11	WAS	4.2294	3.8351
12	NYG	4.1968	3.8364
13	IND	3.8495	3.8503
14	TEN	3.4738	3.8654
15	SEA	2.4064	3.9081
16	KC	0.8563	3.9702
17	ARI	0.8206	3.9716
18	GB	0.7432	3.9747
19	STL	0.0289	4.0033
20	NE	-1.8253	4.0776
21	JAX	-2.2173	4.0933
22	SD	-6.1939	4.2525
23	ATL	-6.6413	4.2704
24	MIA	-7.5969	4.3087
25	NYJ	-8.8252	4.3579
26	BUF	-9.2627	4.3754
27	CIN	-9.6451	4.3907
28	CHI	-10.3650	4.4196
29	HOU	-10.3980	4.4209
30	CLE	-14.9190	4.6019
31	DEN	-16.1520	4.6513
32	OAK	-24.1250	4.9706

Pass offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1282)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	34.8110	8.2615
2	DAL	29.2610	7.9214
3	GB	21.7910	7.4636
4	HOU	16.9250	7.1654
5	DEN	12.4960	6.8940
6	CIN	12.1530	6.8730
7	IND	12.1300	6.8716
8	CLE	11.4710	6.8312
9	ARI	7.7782	6.6049
10	TB	7.6788	6.5988
11	PIT	6.1412	6.5046
12	JAX	5.5196	6.4665
13	SD	4.8809	6.4273
14	SEA	4.5489	6.4070
15	NO	3.6878	6.3542
16	PHI	1.4350	6.2162
17	DET	0.1198	6.1356
18	WAS	-3.7582	5.8979
19	CHI	-6.4489	5.7330
20	BUF	-6.7836	5.7125
21	MIN	-8.2509	5.6226
22	NYG	-8.6597	5.5975
23	TEN	-8.7592	5.5914
24	KC	-10.5000	5.4848
25	OAK	-10.9410	5.4577
26	MIA	-11.8740	5.4005
27	NYJ	-12.5390	5.3598
28	ATL	-14.8820	5.2162
29	CAR	-17.6490	5.0466
30	STL	-18.2240	5.0114
31	BAL	-20.1860	4.8912
32	SF	-34.6870	4.0025

Pass defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1282)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	PIT	27.3940	4.4495
2	IND	19.9390	4.9063
3	TB	13.4020	5.3069
4	SEA	10.5560	5.4813
5	DAL	10.4570	5.4874
6	TEN	10.1490	5.5063
7	NE	9.8527	5.5244
8	WAS	8.6739	5.5967
9	ARI	7.9311	5.6422
10	GB	5.7538	5.7756
11	NYG	3.6862	5.9023
12	KC	2.3992	5.9812
13	SD	-0.1238	6.1358
14	SF	-1.0908	6.1951
15	HOU	-2.0307	6.2527
16	PHI	-2.5582	6.2850
17	ATL	-2.5635	6.2853
18	CAR	-3.5971	6.3487
19	STL	-3.9548	6.3706
20	DET	-4.0974	6.3793
21	MIN	-4.6902	6.4156
22	JAX	-5.3286	6.4548
23	CHI	-5.4585	6.4627
24	CLE	-6.3206	6.5156
25	BAL	-7.9567	6.6158
26	DEN	-7.9979	6.6183
27	MIA	-8.9210	6.6749
28	OAK	-9.8888	6.7342
29	BUF	-11.5980	6.8390
30	CIN	-14.8700	7.0395
31	NYJ	-17.6980	7.2128
32	NO	-18.1190	7.2386

Sack rate made, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1215%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NYG	55.3810	9.5116
2	PIT	39.0290	8.5106
3	CHI	38.5830	8.4833
4	SEA	33.5880	8.1775
5	NE	30.1840	7.9692
6	GB	23.5160	7.5610
7	KC	18.5670	7.2580
8	DAL	12.6620	6.8966
9	PHI	12.2320	6.8702
10	DEN	11.1620	6.8047
11	OAK	8.5446	6.6445
12	ARI	8.3902	6.6351
13	BAL	6.1376	6.4972
14	DET	-1.4209	6.0345
15	MIA	-1.8688	6.0071
16	TEN	-2.2287	5.9850
17	WAS	-2.5301	5.9666
18	JAX	-2.7622	5.9524
19	SD	-3.1943	5.9259
20	SF	-3.1943	5.9259
21	NYJ	-5.6586	5.7751
22	STL	-6.5245	5.7221
23	TB	-8.0841	5.6266
24	IND	-9.9947	5.5096
25	MIN	-12.6060	5.3498
26	NO	-16.7870	5.0939
27	ATL	-16.9360	5.0847
28	CIN	-22.6190	4.7369
29	HOU	-30.4850	4.2553
30	CLE	-31.0260	4.2222
31	CAR	-55.8490	2.7027
32	BUF	-60.7310	2.4038

Sack rate allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1215%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NO	75.3020	1.5119
2	NE	48.5790	3.1477
3	GB	48.0220	3.1818
4	CIN	43.4090	3.4642
5	SD	38.2650	3.7791
6	IND	34.1620	4.0303
7	HOU	33.4920	4.0713
8	CLE	33.1520	4.0921
9	ARI	32.2660	4.1463
10	WAS	27.3010	4.4502
11	DAL	24.7390	4.6071
12	NYG	23.3620	4.6914
13	MIA	16.5640	5.1075
14	DEN	11.2180	5.4348
15	SEA	8.8226	5.5814
16	TEN	6.6517	5.7143
17	TB	5.6586	5.7751
18	BAL	-0.0161	6.1224
19	CAR	-1.5707	6.2176
20	JAX	-14.5510	7.0122
21	BUF	-17.4150	7.1875
22	NYJ	-25.3290	7.6720
23	CHI	-26.8810	7.7670
24	PHI	-31.9290	8.0760
25	ATL	-36.4670	8.3538
26	KC	-40.9700	8.6294
27	STL	-45.1260	8.8838
28	SF	-50.7310	9.2269
29	MIN	-58.0900	9.6774
30	OAK	-61.9310	9.9125
31	DET	-63.3600	10.0000
32	PIT	-73.7870	10.6383

Third down % converted, Unadjusted (League Avg = 40.1875%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	33.3750	53.6001
2	PIT	22.0690	49.0565
3	NO	21.9450	49.0067
4	DAL	21.7320	48.9211
5	IND	19.2330	47.9168
6	CIN	18.3260	47.5523
7	PHI	12.3760	45.1611
8	DEN	9.7795	44.1177
9	HOU	6.1202	42.6471
10	JAX	5.9549	42.5806
11	NYG	5.9224	42.5676
12	GB	5.8866	42.5532
13	CLE	4.5822	42.0290
14	TEN	1.8714	40.9396
15	NYJ	1.1923	40.6667
16	WAS	-0.4666	40.0000
17	TB	-1.9196	39.4161
18	SD	-3.0281	38.9706
19	ATL	-4.8578	38.2353
20	OAK	-4.9044	38.2166
21	MIA	-6.2366	37.6812
22	BUF	-6.4536	37.5940
23	STL	-8.0742	36.9427
24	BAL	-8.8126	36.6459
25	SEA	-9.2094	36.4865
26	ARI	-10.6300	35.9156
27	CHI	-11.3530	35.6250
28	CAR	-13.9830	34.5681
29	KC	-14.3620	34.4158
30	DET	-24.0200	30.5345
31	MIN	-24.2680	30.4348
32	SF	-31.9860	27.3331

Third down % allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 40.1875%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	GB	21.1440	31.6903
2	ATL	19.5500	32.3309
3	CHI	18.6510	32.6921
4	KC	14.7830	34.2466
5	NE	14.3360	34.4262
6	BAL	10.7960	35.8489
7	STL	10.1950	36.0904
8	SEA	9.2305	36.4780
9	OAK	7.9657	36.9863
10	PIT	5.3732	38.0282
11	DAL	4.1655	38.5135
12	NYG	3.6208	38.7324
13	JAX	1.5407	39.5683
14	WAS	0.8029	39.8649
15	SF	0.4666	40.0000
16	TB	-1.7244	40.8805
17	CIN	-1.7955	40.9091
18	CLE	-1.8714	40.9396
19	PHI	-3.8180	41.7219
20	TEN	-4.3495	41.9355
21	HOU	-5.6200	42.4461
22	SD	-5.8866	42.5532
23	NO	-7.8859	43.3567
24	MIN	-8.1241	43.4524
25	DET	-8.3357	43.5374
26	ARI	-8.6678	43.6709
27	IND	-9.0777	43.8356
28	DEN	-9.8300	44.1379
29	CAR	-10.9450	44.5860
30	NYJ	-12.6110	45.2556
31	MIA	-15.2680	46.3233
32	BUF	-22.7580	49.3334

Int. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9563%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	59.0480	1.2107
2	TB	58.8740	1.2158
3	JAX	48.4360	1.5244
4	GB	46.1860	1.5909
5	BAL	30.9670	2.0408
6	SEA	29.2010	2.0930
7	ATL	25.2000	2.2113
8	PHI	19.6530	2.3753
9	MIN	12.7070	2.5806
10	WAS	11.4500	2.6178
11	SF	7.2102	2.7431
12	MIA	-0.0234	2.9570
13	DEN	-1.1106	2.9891
14	IND	-2.2451	3.0227
15	PIT	-2.8149	3.0395
16	CLE	-3.8141	3.0691
17	CAR	-5.1588	3.1088
18	DET	-5.2367	3.1111
19	NO	-9.5878	3.2397
20	KC	-11.6090	3.2995
21	BUF	-16.2770	3.4375
22	NYJ	-16.3330	3.4392
23	CIN	-17.1800	3.4642
24	SD	-17.9980	3.4884
25	DAL	-19.1700	3.5230
26	ARI	-23.7540	3.6585
27	NYG	-25.2820	3.7037
28	TEN	-25.6400	3.7143
29	HOU	-29.1070	3.8168
30	OAK	-38.0660	4.0816
31	STL	-38.6950	4.1002
32	CHI	-39.5740	4.1262

Int. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9563%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	OAK	46.0930	4.3189
2	SD	41.9860	4.1975
3	IND	39.7770	4.1322
4	NE	39.1300	4.1131
5	DAL	24.4180	3.6782
6	DEN	20.0930	3.5503
7	TEN	18.0960	3.4913
8	BAL	14.6650	3.3898
9	ATL	14.6650	3.3898
10	JAX	12.7540	3.3333
11	TB	12.4650	3.3248
12	DET	9.3516	3.2328
13	KC	9.1164	3.2258
14	MIA	7.5741	3.1802
15	CIN	6.8192	3.1579
16	GB	-0.9968	2.9268
17	BUF	-2.4247	2.8846
18	ARI	-3.8121	2.8436
19	NYG	-4.3478	2.8278
20	NYJ	-7.4666	2.7356
21	STL	-7.8308	2.7248
22	MIN	-9.5187	2.6749
23	CLE	-9.7971	2.6667
24	HOU	-10.0370	2.6596
25	SEA	-13.0640	2.5701
26	NO	-18.3820	2.4129
27	CAR	-26.8630	2.1621
28	WAS	-27.3430	2.1480
29	PIT	-28.0300	2.1276
30	SF	-33.1830	1.9753
31	CHI	-47.8260	1.5424
32	PHI	-48.3570	1.5267

Fum. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0916%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	48.9810	1.5773
2	IND	39.6930	1.8644
3	ATL	34.5940	2.0221
4	NYJ	32.2270	2.0952
5	JAX	31.7830	2.1090
6	SEA	31.6630	2.1127
7	BUF	30.6420	2.1442
8	DAL	30.0620	2.1622
9	PIT	29.8000	2.1703
10	SD	24.6300	2.3301
11	NYG	23.6840	2.3593
12	MIA	22.2130	2.4048
13	CIN	21.6530	2.4221
14	TB	19.5980	2.4857
15	PHI	18.9900	2.5045
16	NO	11.6830	2.7304
17	STL	7.7470	2.8520
18	KC	3.9815	2.9685
19	CLE	0.8545	3.0651
20	GB	-4.3427	3.2258
21	MIN	-11.1130	3.4351
22	CAR	-22.0610	3.7736
23	ARI	-22.5240	3.7879
24	HOU	-24.1810	3.8391
25	TEN	-32.2500	4.0886
26	DEN	-37.0100	4.2357
27	BAL	-44.9200	4.4803
28	WAS	-51.3600	4.6794
29	CHI	-55.7410	4.8148
30	SF	-57.0900	4.8565
31	OAK	-57.9290	4.8825
32	DET	-62.9380	5.0373

Fum. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0916%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DET	78.2450	5.5105
2	PIT	42.8090	4.4150
3	SEA	40.6360	4.3478
4	NYG	24.8890	3.8610
5	DEN	20.0120	3.7102
6	DAL	18.6440	3.6679
7	WAS	18.2680	3.6563
8	IND	15.5220	3.5714
9	TEN	12.8360	3.4884
10	HOU	12.7670	3.4862
11	CHI	11.1550	3.4364
12	STL	10.6910	3.4221
13	SD	9.5505	3.3868
14	MIN	9.4627	3.3841
15	TB	8.7749	3.3628
16	NE	8.2719	3.3473
17	CAR	6.5127	3.2929
18	NO	-1.7951	3.0361
19	ATL	-3.9815	2.9685
20	GB	-6.8727	2.8791
21	CIN	-7.2510	2.8674
22	MIA	-12.5780	2.7027
23	ARI	-13.3580	2.6786
24	KC	-15.5140	2.6119
25	OAK	-20.3600	2.4621
26	JAX	-21.6940	2.4209
27	SF	-32.5040	2.0867
28	BUF	-32.6120	2.0833
29	CLE	-34.6540	2.0202
30	PHI	-38.8540	1.8904
31	BAL	-39.4270	1.8726
32	NYJ	-57.0860	1.3267

Rush offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0045)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	35.9320	5.4434
2	PHI	13.9240	4.5621
3	NYG	12.3500	4.4990
4	DAL	12.3460	4.4989
5	SF	10.9810	4.4442
6	DEN	10.3130	4.4175
7	CLE	6.2673	4.2555
8	TB	5.4398	4.2223
9	CAR	3.2313	4.1339
10	MIA	3.0840	4.1280
11	JAX	2.4591	4.1030
12	OAK	2.0773	4.0877
13	WAS	1.9624	4.0831
14	PIT	1.6992	4.0725
15	IND	1.0670	4.0472
16	ATL	-0.1607	3.9981
17	NE	-1.8451	3.9306
18	DET	-3.5888	3.8608
19	GB	-4.4470	3.8264
20	TEN	-4.4530	3.8262
21	NYJ	-4.8246	3.8113
22	SD	-5.9856	3.7648
23	STL	-6.0508	3.7622
24	BUF	-6.1101	3.7598
25	BAL	-6.3608	3.7498
26	ARI	-6.8682	3.7295
27	CIN	-8.1426	3.6784
28	SEA	-9.2546	3.6339
29	NO	-10.1150	3.5994
30	HOU	-14.2300	3.4347
31	CHI	-16.6770	3.3367
32	KC	-24.1340	3.0380

Rush defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0045)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	BAL	27.3770	2.9082
2	MIN	23.5250	3.0624
3	DAL	13.4730	3.4650
4	PHI	10.7630	3.5735
5	NYG	9.9578	3.6057
6	DET	9.2765	3.6330
7	GB	6.7259	3.7352
8	NO	6.3553	3.7500
9	WAS	6.1532	3.7581
10	PIT	5.5838	3.7809
11	TEN	4.0186	3.8436
12	TB	3.6481	3.8584
13	IND	2.9828	3.8850
14	CAR	2.8353	3.8910
15	KC	1.9596	3.9260
16	ARI	-0.1748	4.0115
17	SD	-0.5196	4.0253
18	STL	-0.5229	4.0254
19	SF	-0.7065	4.0328
20	NE	-1.3246	4.0575
21	ATL	-2.2455	4.0944
22	CHI	-3.0145	4.1252
23	MIA	-3.8466	4.1585
24	SEA	-3.9897	4.1643
25	JAX	-5.1925	4.2124
26	BUF	-5.8476	4.2387
27	NYJ	-6.9384	4.2823
28	HOU	-9.9513	4.4030
29	CIN	-13.6860	4.5525
30	CLE	-15.7320	4.6345
31	DEN	-19.0460	4.7672
32	OAK	-24.9860	5.0051

Pass offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1282)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	32.1800	8.1003
2	DAL	27.0160	7.7838
3	GB	19.4330	7.3191
4	DEN	15.6540	7.0875
5	CIN	15.5730	7.0826
6	HOU	15.3380	7.0682
7	CLE	13.6820	6.9667
8	IND	12.4520	6.8913
9	ARI	11.3560	6.8241
10	TB	9.7511	6.7258
11	NO	6.2766	6.5129
12	JAX	4.2560	6.3890
13	SD	3.5439	6.3454
14	SEA	2.9066	6.3063
15	PHI	2.7030	6.2939
16	PIT	0.7596	6.1748
17	WAS	-0.3049	6.1095
18	DET	-0.5298	6.0957
19	CHI	-6.8792	5.7066
20	NYG	-7.4958	5.6689
21	MIN	-8.5504	5.6042
22	BUF	-9.7230	5.5324
23	TEN	-10.3700	5.4927
24	MIA	-10.6510	5.4755
25	NYJ	-12.2110	5.3799
26	OAK	-12.3410	5.3719
27	KC	-12.9010	5.3376
28	ATL	-14.5880	5.2342
29	CAR	-15.7620	5.1623
30	STL	-17.9960	5.0254
31	BAL	-24.0650	4.6535
32	SF	-31.4550	4.2006

Pass defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1282)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	PIT	24.7540	4.6112
2	IND	21.5210	4.8094
3	TEN	14.6360	5.2313
4	WAS	13.9560	5.2730
5	NE	12.0600	5.3892
6	TB	10.7400	5.4700
7	SEA	8.5751	5.6027
8	DAL	7.7501	5.6533
9	KC	7.4627	5.6709
10	SD	4.8005	5.8340
11	NYG	3.5115	5.9130
12	PHI	1.7496	6.0210
13	GB	1.3898	6.0430
14	MIA	0.4859	6.0984
15	CHI	0.2845	6.1108
16	ARI	-2.5832	6.2865
17	MIN	-2.7453	6.2965
18	BUF	-3.2013	6.3244
19	DET	-3.2414	6.3269
20	CAR	-3.5044	6.3430
21	JAX	-3.6692	6.3531
22	SF	-5.2364	6.4491
23	DEN	-6.1915	6.5076
24	HOU	-6.2497	6.5112
25	ATL	-6.5752	6.5312
26	STL	-8.1323	6.6266
27	BAL	-8.3144	6.6377
28	CLE	-9.3958	6.7040
29	OAK	-10.2640	6.7572
30	NYJ	-17.3880	7.1938
31	CIN	-18.4330	7.2578
32	NO	-25.2040	7.6728

Sack rate made, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1215%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	53.9790	9.4258
2	PIT	53.7650	9.4127
3	NYG	30.3170	7.9773
4	KC	28.5470	7.8690
5	CHI	24.1000	7.5967
6	PHI	19.7430	7.3300
7	IND	19.6720	7.3257
8	DAL	16.3710	7.1236
9	GB	11.8880	6.8492
10	TB	10.3510	6.7551
11	TEN	10.2010	6.7459
12	JAX	8.4277	6.6374
13	STL	7.4084	6.5750
14	SEA	7.0674	6.5541
15	BAL	5.6956	6.4701
16	SD	2.9582	6.3026
17	MIA	2.9129	6.2998
18	WAS	1.4802	6.2121
19	OAK	-5.9928	5.7546
20	DET	-8.2128	5.6187
21	ARI	-9.0424	5.5679
22	ATL	-9.1582	5.5608
23	SF	-10.7400	5.4640
24	DEN	-13.4710	5.2968
25	NYJ	-14.6750	5.2231
26	HOU	-17.4900	5.0508
27	MIN	-20.0910	4.8916
28	CIN	-25.1500	4.5819
29	NO	-25.6170	4.5533
30	CLE	-34.7590	3.9937
31	CAR	-51.5320	2.9670
32	BUF	-61.0860	2.3821

Sack rate allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1215%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NO	72.3150	1.6947
2	CIN	47.6990	3.2016
3	GB	47.2820	3.2271
4	SD	44.2640	3.4119
5	NE	43.7710	3.4420
6	CLE	41.4120	3.5864
7	WAS	36.3380	3.8970
8	IND	32.4600	4.1344
9	DAL	32.0030	4.1624
10	HOU	27.2630	4.4526
11	NYG	24.9540	4.5939
12	ARI	20.0050	4.8969
13	MIA	14.6340	5.2257
14	DEN	12.0590	5.3833
15	TB	10.2600	5.4934
16	SEA	5.7430	5.7699
17	BUF	-2.5018	6.2746
18	PHI	-10.7350	6.7786
19	CAR	-12.6860	6.8980
20	BAL	-13.6930	6.9597
21	CHI	-16.0460	7.1037
22	TEN	-16.8500	7.1529
23	JAX	-28.7650	7.8823
24	MIN	-32.9680	8.1396
25	SF	-33.2100	8.1544
26	NYJ	-40.9490	8.6281
27	KC	-42.7690	8.7396
28	STL	-43.3270	8.7737
29	DET	-44.5090	8.8461
30	ATL	-58.8170	9.7219
31	OAK	-62.6340	9.9556
32	PIT	-88.8320	11.5593

Third down % converted, Adjusted (League Avg = 40.1875%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	25.3230	50.3642
2	DAL	20.6110	48.4706
3	NO	20.3080	48.3488
4	IND	18.0430	47.4385
5	CIN	17.6880	47.2959
6	PIT	17.4260	47.1906
7	PHI	16.9820	47.0122
8	DEN	10.9190	44.5756
9	CLE	9.3001	43.9250
10	NYG	8.6319	43.6565
11	HOU	7.4037	43.1629
12	GB	5.6869	42.4729
13	SD	5.2910	42.3138
14	JAX	3.2151	41.4796
15	TEN	0.5365	40.4031
16	NYJ	0.1549	40.2498
17	WAS	-2.8322	39.0493
18	TB	-4.2487	38.4801
19	BUF	-5.3785	38.0260
20	SEA	-6.8666	37.4280
21	OAK	-7.6295	37.1214
22	MIA	-7.7777	37.0618
23	STL	-8.3140	36.8463
24	ARI	-8.9013	36.6103
25	ATL	-9.4448	36.3919
26	CHI	-10.9830	35.7737
27	BAL	-12.7390	35.0680
28	CAR	-12.8830	35.0102
29	KC	-13.0700	34.9350
30	MIN	-18.4770	32.7621
31	DET	-20.3610	32.0049
32	SF	-29.9560	28.1489

Third down % allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 40.1875%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	17.6560	33.0920
2	ATL	17.0270	33.3448
3	KC	15.5110	33.9540
4	GB	14.7910	34.2434
5	CHI	13.1580	34.8996
6	BAL	11.7270	35.4747
7	SEA	10.9290	35.7954
8	DAL	7.6045	37.1315
9	WAS	6.7127	37.4898
10	STL	4.7552	38.2765
11	TEN	2.8505	39.0420
12	JAX	2.7079	39.0993
13	OAK	2.3851	39.2290
14	PIT	1.2482	39.6859
15	NYG	1.1304	39.7332
16	CLE	-0.0664	40.2142
17	TB	-0.7275	40.4799
18	CIN	-0.8683	40.5365
19	SF	-1.5507	40.8107
20	PHI	-2.1015	41.0321
21	HOU	-4.5070	41.9988
22	SD	-5.5340	42.4115
23	NYJ	-5.6132	42.4433
24	CAR	-5.7904	42.5145
25	IND	-7.3655	43.1475
26	MIA	-8.7345	43.6977
27	MIN	-9.0589	43.8281
28	BUF	-10.4590	44.3907
29	DEN	-11.3820	44.7617
30	DET	-15.2440	46.3137
31	ARI	-17.8810	47.3734
32	NO	-19.0600	47.8473

Int. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9563%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	67.2310	0.9687
2	TB	65.2890	1.0262
3	JAX	47.3370	1.5569
4	PHI	30.5540	2.0530
5	ATL	28.4440	2.1154
6	GB	27.0890	2.1555
7	BAL	26.7880	2.1644
8	MIN	21.0580	2.3338
9	IND	20.2840	2.3566
10	SEA	15.3660	2.5020
11	MIA	11.6870	2.6108
12	WAS	9.4420	2.6772
13	SF	3.5049	2.8527
14	CLE	2.7056	2.8763
15	PIT	0.3040	2.9473
16	BUF	-3.0317	3.0459
17	DEN	-3.1969	3.0508
18	KC	-5.7922	3.1275
19	HOU	-6.9265	3.1611
20	CAR	-6.9362	3.1614
21	SD	-10.0480	3.2533
22	NO	-10.1290	3.2557
23	CIN	-16.3910	3.4409
24	DET	-17.2590	3.4665
25	TEN	-23.0060	3.6364
26	NYJ	-25.6910	3.7158
27	CHI	-26.4620	3.7386
28	OAK	-36.6400	4.0395
29	STL	-37.2350	4.0571
30	DAL	-40.5200	4.1542
31	NYG	-40.7550	4.1611
32	ARI	-55.5510	4.5986

Int. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9563%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	94.5410	5.7512
2	OAK	38.9470	4.1077
3	CIN	38.0870	4.0823
4	SD	36.5940	4.0381
5	NE	36.4480	4.0338
6	JAX	34.7810	3.9845
7	MIA	31.9760	3.9016
8	DAL	13.5480	3.3568
9	TEN	10.5470	3.2681
10	KC	9.2713	3.2304
11	NO	7.2835	3.1716
12	ATL	7.0620	3.1651
13	TB	6.8331	3.1583
14	DEN	-0.1789	2.9510
15	STL	-1.2945	2.9180
16	BAL	-2.9067	2.8704
17	NYG	-3.2918	2.8590
18	GB	-3.7089	2.8467
19	CLE	-4.4808	2.8238
20	DET	-6.3718	2.7679
21	NYJ	-12.0210	2.6009
22	BUF	-15.0360	2.5118
23	ARI	-15.4220	2.5004
24	MIN	-18.4140	2.4119
25	HOU	-21.6980	2.3148
26	PIT	-21.7060	2.3146
27	WAS	-21.9450	2.3075
28	SEA	-26.9850	2.1585
29	SF	-31.5780	2.0228
30	CAR	-38.2580	1.8253
31	PHI	-44.6150	1.6373
32	CHI	-46.4860	1.5820

Fum. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0916%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	41.7830	1.7998
2	IND	39.3650	1.8746
3	ATL	37.9880	1.9171
4	JAX	35.9020	1.9816
5	TB	33.4860	2.0563
6	PHI	32.3190	2.0924
7	MIA	31.4160	2.1203
8	SD	27.3970	2.2446
9	BUF	23.5770	2.3627
10	NYG	22.7140	2.3893
11	DAL	22.0280	2.4105
12	NYJ	21.7330	2.4197
13	SEA	21.1460	2.4378
14	NO	15.5440	2.6110
15	KC	8.5516	2.8272
16	CIN	5.8791	2.9098
17	PIT	4.9874	2.9374
18	STL	4.8544	2.9415
19	GB	3.5867	2.9807
20	CLE	1.4734	3.0460
21	MIN	-11.4740	3.4463
22	CAR	-15.9340	3.5842
23	ARI	-19.2140	3.6856
24	DEN	-27.0050	3.9264
25	HOU	-29.1500	3.9927
26	TEN	-31.4890	4.0650
27	CHI	-36.0590	4.2063
28	SF	-44.4240	4.4649
29	OAK	-49.9220	4.6349
30	WAS	-56.7030	4.8446
31	DET	-62.2070	5.0147
32	BAL	-62.8510	5.0346

Fum. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0916%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DET	48.3310	4.5857
2	DAL	46.1480	4.5182
3	SEA	38.5360	4.2829
4	PIT	37.7090	4.2573
5	NE	35.2820	4.1823
6	WAS	26.1960	3.9014
7	HOU	22.2990	3.7809
8	NYG	22.2200	3.7785
9	CAR	15.5470	3.5722
10	IND	14.4280	3.5376
11	TB	13.7410	3.5164
12	TEN	11.6080	3.4504
13	MIN	7.7074	3.3298
14	STL	5.3102	3.2557
15	DEN	3.8572	3.2108
16	SD	1.6013	3.1411
17	NO	1.3622	3.1337
18	ATL	-2.0616	3.0278
19	MIA	-3.5167	2.9828
20	CHI	-4.7796	2.9438
21	BUF	-9.8207	2.7879
22	GB	-12.2900	2.7116
23	ARI	-14.4700	2.6442
24	CIN	-18.9380	2.5061
25	KC	-20.2710	2.4649
26	SF	-24.4700	2.3350
27	JAX	-24.7010	2.3279
28	BAL	-32.5520	2.0852
29	OAK	-34.0360	2.0393
30	CLE	-35.8080	1.9845
31	NYJ	-44.5250	1.7150
32	PHI	-54.9360	1.3932

Read More......

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 12

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
DET	GB	20.3024	-11
DAL	NYJ	98.7388	31
ATL	IND	33.2753	-18
TB	WAS	37.0882	6
CHI	DEN	8.7371	3
ARI	SF	34.2316	-6
CIN	TEN	95.8828	29
CLE	HOU	64.5756	10
JAX	BUF	97.9198	22
NYG	MIN	3.0502	-24
CAR	NO	0.3645	-25
KC	OAK	12.7736	-3
STL	SEA	19.8848	-5
NE	PHI	86.1318	3
PIT	MIA	76.6204	3

Teams that "should" have won but didn't
Washington Redskins (@ Bucs), Win Prob = 62.9118% Tampa Bay managed less than 4 yards per pass and gave up 3 sacks. Since they threw the ball 23 times, this resulted in a very high sack rate. Tampa Bay also recovered their only fumble.
Denver Broncos (@ Bears), Win Prob = 91.2629% Denver averaged 8.85 yards per pass play, while Chicago managed only 4.75 yards per pass play. Hester is the only reason Chicago has won in at least 3 of their wins this season by my count.

Team	Actual Wins	Expected Wins	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	5.0	3.9245	5.7084
MIA	0.0	4.1526	6.0402
NE	11.0	9.7243	14.1444
NYJ	2.0	3.2530	4.7316
AFC North
BAL	4.0	4.1137	5.9836
CIN	4.0	4.8954	7.1205
CLE	7.0	5.1098	7.4325
PIT	8.0	8.2439	11.9911
AFC South
HOU	5.0	5.1295	7.4611
IND	9.0	9.1084	13.2485
JAX	8.0	7.2858	10.5975
TEN	6.0	4.8496	7.0540
AFC West
DEN	5.0	5.4529	7.9315
KC	4.0	5.1952	7.5566
OAK	3.0	3.5263	5.1292
SD	6.0	5.4317	7.9007
NFC East
DAL	10.0	9.2022	13.3850
NYG	7.0	5.5236	8.0343
PHI	5.0	6.0112	8.7436
WAS	5.0	4.6354	6.7424
NFC North
CHI	5.0	2.6594	3.8682
DET	6.0	5.7149	8.3126
GB	10.0	7.8794	11.4609
MIN	5.0	5.2397	7.6214
NFC South
ATL	3.0	5.3420	7.7701
CAR	4.0	3.7511	5.4561
NO	5.0	4.8687	7.0818
TB	7.0	7.2789	10.5874
NFC West
ARI	5.0	4.6512	6.7654
STL	2.0	4.1307	6.0083
SF	3.0	1.9549	2.8436
SEA	7.0	7.7600	11.2872

Read More......

Predictions 2007 Week 12

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
PHI @ NE	7.9219	74.1605
TEN @ CIN	1.5321	54.2373
HOU @ CLE	3.4525	60.7826
MIA @ PIT	8.6632	75.3720
BUF @ JAX	5.1076	66.4405
OAK @ KC	7.1212	71.6851
BAL @ SD	5.5793	69.3920
NYJ @ DAL	15.2232	89.1438
MIN @ NYG	3.0814	56.5293
DEN @ CHI	0.6785	50.2349
GB @ DET	-0.8933	49.3708
IND @ ATL	-3.4199	38.2388
NO @ CAR	4.2428	65.2461
WAS @ TB	4.8448	66.3605
SF @ ARI	7.2374	73.9324
SEA @ STL	-1.6242	44.2316

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
PHI @ NE	9.0761	76.8020
TEN @ CIN	1.4597	54.4186
HOU @ CLE	2.6048	57.8192
MIA @ PIT	11.8147	82.5801
BUF @ JAX	6.6868	70.7531
OAK @ KC	6.8874	70.2740
BAL @ SD	3.7918	63.5789
NYJ @ DAL	14.8926	88.9950
MIN @ NYG	2.4078	53.0317
DEN @ CHI	0.4499	47.0168
GB @ DET	-0.1966	50.7409
IND @ ATL	-2.5875	40.8327
NO @ CAR	3.2861	64.0675
WAS @ TB	5.9989	70.2880
SF @ ARI	6.7771	73.0667
SEA @ STL	-2.0442	43.2337

Read More......

The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 11

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

All Games
Home Team Win %: 55.0000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 1.6563

Interconference
Home Team Win %: 61.3636%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.3409

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 67.8571%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.0357

Intradivsion
Home Team Win %: 38.3333%
Avg. Final Score Margin: -2.5333

Read More......

Power Rankings 2007 Week 11

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	11.4795
2	DAL	11.3244
3	IND	10.7248
4	TB	10.2407
5	PIT	9.8901
6	MIN	9.1499
7	GB	9.0889
8	NYG	8.8950
9	PHI	8.8749
10	WAS	8.7871
11	SEA	8.3319
12	TEN	8.3209
13	JAX	8.1216
14	SD	8.1022
15	DEN	7.9506
16	ARI	7.8998
17	DET	7.7828
18	CLE	7.7737
19	MIA	7.5919
20	HOU	7.5603
21	CAR	7.3835
22	BUF	7.1744
23	ATL	7.0890
24	CIN	7.0321
25	KC	6.9455
26	BAL	6.7021
27	CHI	6.5708
28	NO	6.4245
29	STL	6.1375
30	NYJ	5.8191
31	SF	5.5370
32	OAK	5.2937

Power Rankings, Unadjusted
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	11.6398
2	DAL	11.1056
3	PIT	10.8020
4	IND	10.3668
5	TB	10.1863
6	MIN	9.4168
7	GB	9.1591
8	SEA	8.8782
9	PHI	8.6894
10	NYG	8.6627
11	DET	8.3091
12	TEN	8.2302
13	WAS	8.1641
14	JAX	8.1178
15	HOU	8.0090
16	ARI	7.8899
17	SD	7.8145
18	DEN	7.7899
19	CLE	7.5595
20	BAL	7.4997
21	CAR	7.3289
22	ATL	7.1751
23	CIN	7.0558
24	KC	7.0239
25	MIA	6.8786
26	NO	6.5305
27	BUF	6.4760
28	STL	6.4508
29	CHI	5.9604
30	NYJ	5.6965
31	OAK	5.5697
32	SF	5.5634

Read More......

Projected Final Standings 2007 Week 11

Using the projected win probabilities from the logistic regression power rankings, I estimated which games each team would win on the rest of their respective schedules. And then I summed the projected wins with the actual wins so far to get their projected win totals. The teams are sorted by division.

Projected Final Standings
Team	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	6
MIA	3
NE	16
NYJ	3
AFC North
BAL	4
CIN	6
CLE	10
PIT	12
AFC South
HOU	7
IND	14
JAX	10
TEN	9
AFC West
DEN	8
KC	7
OAK	2
SD	9
NFC East
DAL	15
NYG	11
PHI	9
WAS	7
NFC North
CHI	6
DET	7
GB	14
MIN	8
NFC South
ATL	4
CAR	6
NO	5
TB	12
NFC West
ARI	9
STL	3
SF	3
SEA	11

Read More......

Stats (Raw and VOLA) 2007 Week 11

This is the data I use to make my predictions and power rankings. Below are the tables for the raw stats and the values over league average for all of the inputs I use. Rush and pass stats are yards per play. See for yourself where your team's strengths and weaknesses are.

Rush offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0188)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	47.5560	5.9300
2	DEN	15.9940	4.6616
3	PHI	14.4980	4.6015
4	MIA	12.3180	4.5138
5	NYG	9.4509	4.3986
6	DAL	7.8874	4.3358
7	PIT	7.6316	4.3255
8	CAR	4.9450	4.2175
9	OAK	4.3325	4.1929
10	NE	3.7841	4.1709
11	JAX	3.7657	4.1701
12	TB	2.5214	4.1201
13	SF	2.3237	4.1122
14	CLE	1.0810	4.0623
15	IND	0.9956	4.0588
16	BAL	0.7075	4.0472
17	WAS	0.4149	4.0355
18	SD	-0.4681	4.0000
19	TEN	-0.5396	3.9971
20	DET	-3.8442	3.8643
21	ATL	-7.2634	3.7269
22	NYJ	-7.3132	3.7249
23	BUF	-7.4608	3.7190
24	NO	-10.8270	3.5837
25	SEA	-11.5880	3.5531
26	STL	-12.2700	3.5257
27	HOU	-12.4840	3.5171
28	CIN	-13.7730	3.4653
29	ARI	-14.7710	3.4252
30	GB	-14.9300	3.4188
31	CHI	-20.6860	3.1875
32	KC	-21.9260	3.1376

Rush defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0188)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	BAL	30.6830	2.7857
2	MIN	28.2440	2.8837
3	DET	11.0920	3.5730
4	DAL	8.7985	3.6652
5	PHI	8.5130	3.6767
6	TB	8.0449	3.6955
7	CAR	7.3892	3.7219
8	NO	7.1709	3.7306
9	SF	6.4217	3.7607
10	WAS	4.8765	3.8228
11	PIT	4.8732	3.8230
12	ARI	4.8250	3.8249
13	TEN	4.8004	3.8259
14	KC	4.6608	3.8315
15	IND	3.8612	3.8636
16	GB	2.5836	3.9150
17	NYG	2.0909	3.9348
18	STL	1.3536	3.9644
19	SEA	1.0605	3.9762
20	JAX	-2.2854	4.1107
21	NE	-4.0879	4.1831
22	ATL	-6.0306	4.2612
23	NYJ	-6.5797	4.2832
24	BUF	-7.9469	4.3382
25	SD	-8.4251	4.3574
26	HOU	-9.8056	4.4129
27	MIA	-10.1250	4.4257
28	CIN	-10.8340	4.4542
29	CHI	-12.2400	4.5107
30	CLE	-15.0000	4.6216
31	DEN	-17.8580	4.7365
32	OAK	-25.3180	5.0363

Pass offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1428)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	39.4710	8.5674
2	DAL	32.5940	8.1450
3	GB	18.4420	7.2757
4	HOU	18.2650	7.2648
5	IND	11.8800	6.8726
6	TB	11.6440	6.8581
7	CIN	11.4750	6.8477
8	CLE	11.0650	6.8225
9	DEN	9.0950	6.7015
10	PIT	7.8833	6.6271
11	SEA	6.8454	6.5633
12	SD	3.3650	6.3495
13	DET	2.8076	6.3153
14	ARI	2.6912	6.3081
15	JAX	2.6713	6.3069
16	NO	2.2502	6.2810
17	PHI	-1.5043	6.0504
18	WAS	-3.5543	5.9245
19	CHI	-5.1390	5.8271
20	BUF	-5.1838	5.8244
21	NYG	-6.2447	5.7592
22	KC	-10.0660	5.5245
23	MIA	-10.1330	5.5204
24	MIN	-10.3540	5.5068
25	NYJ	-10.8390	5.4770
26	TEN	-12.3070	5.3868
27	OAK	-12.5820	5.3699
28	ATL	-13.8290	5.2933
29	CAR	-16.2250	5.1461
30	STL	-16.6000	5.1231
31	BAL	-19.2890	4.9579
32	SF	-37.9670	3.8106

Pass defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1428)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	PIT	26.8840	4.4914
2	IND	19.1940	4.9638
3	TB	14.6300	5.2441
4	NE	14.4520	5.2550
5	TEN	13.2080	5.3315
6	DAL	8.8767	5.5975
7	ARI	8.1510	5.6421
8	SEA	8.0877	5.6460
9	WAS	6.7156	5.7303
10	NYG	5.2053	5.8231
11	SF	5.0534	5.8324
12	GB	3.4367	5.9317
13	KC	3.3539	5.9368
14	DET	0.7469	6.0969
15	HOU	-0.6438	6.1824
16	ATL	-1.2587	6.2201
17	CHI	-1.6078	6.2416
18	CAR	-1.8181	6.2545
19	PHI	-2.1326	6.2738
20	SD	-3.1164	6.3342
21	CLE	-6.4865	6.5413
22	STL	-6.6690	6.5525
23	BAL	-6.8100	6.5611
24	JAX	-7.7262	6.6174
25	MIN	-8.1779	6.6452
26	BUF	-9.9492	6.7540
27	MIA	-11.2940	6.8366
28	DEN	-11.3670	6.8411
29	OAK	-12.4150	6.9054
30	CIN	-13.7210	6.9857
31	NYJ	-20.3460	7.3926
32	NO	-23.4510	7.5834

Sack rate made, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0531%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NYG	46.1600	8.8472
2	CHI	43.8590	8.7079
3	NE	38.8680	8.4058
4	PIT	32.9240	8.0460
5	SEA	32.3350	8.0103
6	GB	21.8730	7.3771
7	BAL	19.1140	7.2101
8	KC	18.6820	7.1839
9	PHI	18.0040	7.1429
10	DAL	10.1370	6.6667
11	DEN	9.4075	6.6225
12	DET	9.3557	6.6194
13	ARI	8.6877	6.5789
14	TEN	4.9647	6.3536
15	JAX	4.6155	6.3325
16	OAK	2.1269	6.1818
17	TB	-2.8204	5.8824
18	SF	-6.1334	5.6818
19	WAS	-7.5187	5.5980
20	IND	-10.1600	5.4381
21	SD	-10.2150	5.4348
22	NYJ	-11.2990	5.3691
23	NO	-11.4970	5.3572
24	MIN	-12.4490	5.2995
25	STL	-18.4170	4.9383
26	CIN	-19.2960	4.8851
27	MIA	-22.8610	4.6693
28	HOU	-27.1150	4.4118
29	ATL	-27.2680	4.4025
30	CLE	-31.8330	4.1262
31	CAR	-50.5370	2.9940
32	BUF	-60.6650	2.3810

Sack rate allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0531%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NO	72.9170	1.6394
2	NE	53.5940	2.8090
3	IND	45.0840	3.3241
4	GB	42.0330	3.5088
5	CIN	41.2980	3.5533
6	ARI	39.8410	3.6415
7	HOU	34.8490	3.9436
8	DAL	31.5720	4.1420
9	SD	30.4960	4.2071
10	CLE	30.1950	4.2253
11	MIA	27.9630	4.3605
12	WAS	25.1340	4.5317
13	NYG	25.1190	4.5326
14	SEA	18.8910	4.9096
15	TB	12.7630	5.2805
16	DEN	11.2330	5.3731
17	BAL	5.9475	5.6931
18	TEN	1.2924	5.9748
19	CAR	-8.8745	6.5903
20	NYJ	-23.4290	7.4713
21	JAX	-25.3280	7.5862
22	CHI	-27.4190	7.7128
23	BUF	-30.2690	7.8853
24	KC	-39.1670	8.4239
25	PHI	-40.2270	8.4880
26	ATL	-40.9750	8.5333
27	STL	-45.2810	8.7940
28	MIN	-46.1000	8.8435
29	SF	-56.4620	9.4708
30	PIT	-63.5700	9.9010
31	OAK	-65.7230	10.0313
32	DET	-66.8330	10.0985

Third down % converted, Unadjusted (League Avg = 40.5253%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	29.0390	52.2935
2	PIT	24.2190	50.3402
3	DAL	23.3800	50.0002
4	IND	22.4660	49.6297
5	DEN	17.4100	47.5808
6	NO	16.8860	47.3684
7	HOU	9.6708	44.4445
8	GB	8.6477	44.0298
9	CLE	8.5741	44.0000
10	PHI	7.7400	43.6620
11	NYJ	7.0500	43.3824
12	CIN	6.6000	43.2000
13	NYG	5.4849	42.7481
14	TEN	4.7395	42.4460
15	TB	4.6259	42.4000
16	JAX	1.1890	41.0072
17	MIA	-4.0381	38.8889
18	OAK	-4.3178	38.7755
19	ATL	-4.4803	38.7097
20	WAS	-5.3780	38.3459
21	SD	-6.1907	38.0165
22	STL	-6.5840	37.8571
23	SEA	-7.4653	37.5000
24	ARI	-9.3931	36.7187
25	CHI	-9.8052	36.5517
26	BAL	-10.5700	36.2418
27	CAR	-12.2270	35.5703
28	KC	-13.1130	35.2112
29	BUF	-13.5290	35.0427
30	DET	-25.5470	30.1723
31	MIN	-26.9590	29.6001
32	SF	-33.3570	27.0073

Third down % allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 40.5253%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	23.0290	31.1928
2	GB	22.2810	31.4959
3	ATL	18.4100	33.0646
4	KC	14.7230	34.5588
5	BAL	14.3200	34.7221
6	CHI	14.3200	34.7221
7	STL	8.2300	37.1901
8	TEN	8.1407	37.2263
9	SEA	7.8997	37.3239
10	JAX	7.7160	37.3984
11	OAK	6.0842	38.0597
12	NYG	4.3569	38.7597
13	PIT	3.1944	39.2308
14	PHI	3.1241	39.2593
15	TB	2.6865	39.4366
16	DAL	-1.2818	41.0448
17	SF	-1.3184	41.0596
18	CLE	-4.7395	42.4460
19	CAR	-4.7395	42.4460
20	CIN	-5.1761	42.6230
21	SD	-5.2074	42.6356
22	WAS	-5.2356	42.6471
23	MIN	-7.8550	43.7086
24	HOU	-9.6708	44.4445
25	ARI	-10.6160	44.8275
26	DET	-11.0420	45.0001
27	IND	-11.1360	45.0382
28	NO	-11.9910	45.3847
29	NYJ	-13.5880	46.0319
30	DEN	-13.8890	46.1539
31	MIA	-17.4100	47.5808
32	BUF	-19.6970	48.5076

Int. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9555%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	TB	55.3340	1.3201
2	NE	52.4790	1.4045
3	JAX	41.6640	1.7241
4	GB	40.6410	1.7544
5	PHI	37.1770	1.8568
6	ATL	36.8420	1.8667
7	SEA	30.0570	2.0672
8	BAL	24.6250	2.2277
9	WAS	18.2240	2.4169
10	CAR	12.7470	2.5788
11	MIN	7.9324	2.7211
12	PIT	-0.4995	2.9703
13	DEN	-0.9995	2.9851
14	IND	-3.0978	3.0471
15	SF	-3.6722	3.0641
16	CLE	-4.8403	3.0986
17	NYG	-5.4343	3.1161
18	MIA	-8.1928	3.1977
19	DET	-8.3381	3.2020
20	BUF	-9.1446	3.2258
21	KC	-10.3310	3.2609
22	NO	-10.9340	3.2787
23	NYJ	-16.6720	3.4483
24	DAL	-20.1240	3.5503
25	CIN	-20.2250	3.5533
26	ARI	-23.2080	3.6415
27	HOU	-23.9020	3.6620
28	TEN	-27.6790	3.7736
29	SD	-31.3970	3.8835
30	STL	-36.0190	4.0201
31	CHI	-43.9780	4.2553
32	OAK	-48.4910	4.3887

Int. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9555%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	SD	56.3020	4.6196
2	OAK	47.6430	4.3636
3	IND	32.8860	3.9275
4	NE	27.4940	3.7681
5	BAL	27.2780	3.7617
6	DAL	25.3140	3.7037
7	DEN	23.2390	3.6424
8	TEN	21.5060	3.5912
9	DET	19.9820	3.5461
10	ATL	17.0390	3.4591
11	KC	16.6720	3.4483
12	TB	9.4656	3.2353
13	BUF	7.4122	3.1746
14	JAX	7.1288	3.1662
15	CIN	6.9492	3.1609
16	ARI	6.8468	3.1579
17	MIA	5.3224	3.1128
18	GB	1.6894	3.0055
19	NYG	-0.2190	2.9491
20	STL	-6.0143	2.7778
21	NYJ	-9.1682	2.6846
22	HOU	-10.4370	2.6471
23	CLE	-17.8770	2.4272
24	SEA	-21.3140	2.3256
25	PIT	-22.2190	2.2988
26	WAS	-22.5160	2.2901
27	CAR	-29.0890	2.0958
28	MIN	-29.8360	2.0737
29	PHI	-39.5810	1.7857
30	NO	-39.5810	1.7857
31	SF	-42.3270	1.7045
32	CHI	-52.4790	1.4045

Fum. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0983%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	45.9070	1.6760
2	NE	44.4490	1.7212
3	NYJ	40.5980	1.8405
4	SEA	38.2880	1.9121
5	JAX	31.5940	2.1195
6	BUF	29.9880	2.1692
7	MIA	29.5300	2.1834
8	PIT	29.1950	2.1938
9	ATL	28.7090	2.2088
10	DAL	28.5660	2.2133
11	PHI	24.2070	2.3483
12	STL	23.0010	2.3857
13	TB	19.9790	2.4793
14	CIN	17.5680	2.5540
15	NYG	17.4060	2.5590
16	SD	15.8040	2.6087
17	CLE	2.6176	3.0172
18	NO	1.2610	3.0593
19	KC	0.5894	3.0801
20	GB	-1.2559	3.1373
21	MIN	-16.4930	3.6094
22	CAR	-17.8410	3.6511
23	ARI	-17.9960	3.6559
24	HOU	-27.8230	3.9604
25	DEN	-32.5470	4.1068
26	TEN	-35.2150	4.1894
27	BAL	-38.4130	4.2885
28	WAS	-44.4230	4.4747
29	CHI	-45.5030	4.5082
30	OAK	-65.5140	5.1282
31	SF	-69.4450	5.2500
32	DET	-80.4210	5.5901

Fum. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0983%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DET	81.5130	5.6239
2	PIT	41.0090	4.3689
3	NYG	31.8780	4.0860
4	SEA	30.6690	4.0486
5	IND	26.1790	3.9095
6	TEN	22.7470	3.8031
7	WAS	20.7150	3.7402
8	CAR	19.3060	3.6965
9	MIN	17.7930	3.6496
10	DAL	13.8340	3.5270
11	HOU	12.6650	3.4907
12	STL	7.3607	3.3264
13	DEN	6.7471	3.3074
14	NE	5.0824	3.2558
15	CHI	4.3118	3.2319
16	GB	3.4465	3.2051
17	SD	0.0785	3.1008
18	TB	-3.5598	2.9880
19	CIN	-6.8982	2.8846
20	ATL	-7.0259	2.8807
21	NO	-7.7848	2.8571
22	MIA	-10.1680	2.7833
23	ARI	-10.8770	2.7613
24	KC	-14.3720	2.6531
25	OAK	-18.6340	2.5210
26	JAX	-20.1440	2.4742
27	PHI	-32.1950	2.1008
28	BUF	-32.5040	2.0913
29	BAL	-32.6190	2.0877
30	CLE	-35.6830	1.9928
31	SF	-42.3660	1.7857
32	NYJ	-58.5450	1.2844

Rush offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0188)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	41.9910	5.7064
2	PHI	17.1780	4.7092
3	DEN	14.2180	4.5902
4	DAL	10.8700	4.4557
5	NYG	10.8400	4.4545
6	SF	6.7789	4.2912
7	CAR	6.5137	4.2806
8	MIA	6.3546	4.2742
9	TB	6.0057	4.2602
10	CLE	5.5503	4.2419
11	PIT	4.5536	4.2018
12	JAX	2.0485	4.1011
13	WAS	1.8410	4.0928
14	IND	-0.0468	4.0169
15	ATL	-0.2573	4.0085
16	OAK	-1.2156	3.9700
17	NE	-1.4449	3.9607
18	BAL	-3.8883	3.8625
19	TEN	-4.3221	3.8451
20	NYJ	-4.9820	3.8186
21	STL	-5.2322	3.8085
22	SD	-6.6988	3.7496
23	DET	-6.7470	3.7477
24	BUF	-7.5239	3.7164
25	ARI	-8.5376	3.6757
26	NO	-8.8037	3.6650
27	GB	-9.1955	3.6493
28	CIN	-10.1920	3.6092
29	SEA	-11.0400	3.5751
30	HOU	-15.4790	3.3967
31	CHI	-15.8590	3.3815
32	KC	-26.6930	2.9461

Rush defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0188)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	BAL	26.7860	2.9423
2	MIN	22.9370	3.0970
3	DET	14.3100	3.4437
4	DAL	13.7050	3.4680
5	GB	10.5090	3.5965
6	PHI	10.1790	3.6097
7	TEN	7.3680	3.7227
8	WAS	6.9809	3.7383
9	KC	4.4286	3.8408
10	IND	4.2705	3.8472
11	NYG	4.0640	3.8555
12	NO	3.6104	3.8737
13	TB	3.5211	3.8773
14	ARI	3.0074	3.8979
15	STL	0.8610	3.9842
16	SF	0.7754	3.9876
17	CAR	0.6072	3.9944
18	PIT	0.2642	4.0082
19	ATL	-0.9035	4.0551
20	SD	-2.6448	4.1251
21	BUF	-3.1744	4.1464
22	NE	-4.1075	4.1839
23	JAX	-4.4739	4.1986
24	NYJ	-5.2418	4.2295
25	SEA	-5.6124	4.2444
26	CHI	-6.3067	4.2723
27	MIA	-6.9229	4.2970
28	HOU	-9.8131	4.4132
29	CLE	-14.4940	4.6013
30	CIN	-15.7010	4.6498
31	DEN	-20.0290	4.8237
32	OAK	-23.0680	4.9459

Pass offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1428)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	35.6090	8.3302
2	DAL	31.9000	8.1024
3	HOU	16.4710	7.1546
4	GB	15.5950	7.1008
5	CIN	14.2920	7.0207
6	TB	13.6770	6.9830
7	CLE	13.4540	6.9693
8	DEN	13.2460	6.9565
9	IND	12.8740	6.9336
10	ARI	7.1908	6.5845
11	SEA	6.8341	6.5626
12	NO	6.1449	6.5203
13	JAX	2.8294	6.3166
14	PIT	2.6851	6.3077
15	SD	2.2085	6.2785
16	DET	1.6616	6.2449
17	WAS	-1.3516	6.0598
18	PHI	-2.1979	6.0078
19	NYG	-4.3992	5.8726
20	CHI	-5.5992	5.7989
21	BUF	-7.9213	5.6562
22	NYJ	-10.3890	5.5046
23	MIA	-10.8010	5.4793
24	MIN	-11.0950	5.4613
25	TEN	-13.1170	5.3371
26	KC	-13.1590	5.3345
27	CAR	-13.2690	5.3277
28	OAK	-13.8900	5.2896
29	ATL	-14.4450	5.2555
30	STL	-16.4280	5.1337
31	BAL	-23.0380	4.7276
32	SF	-35.9790	3.9327

Pass defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1428)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	PIT	23.4980	4.6994
2	IND	22.1150	4.7843
3	NE	17.2650	5.0823
4	TEN	16.6290	5.1213
5	WAS	12.0900	5.4001
6	TB	11.7630	5.4202
7	KC	8.3954	5.6271
8	DAL	7.8499	5.6606
9	SEA	6.6923	5.7317
10	NYG	5.9084	5.7799
11	CHI	3.3683	5.9359
12	SD	3.3079	5.9396
13	ARI	2.9904	5.9591
14	BUF	-0.0168	6.1438
15	SF	-0.1369	6.1512
16	MIA	-0.4631	6.1713
17	PHI	-0.5339	6.1756
18	DET	-1.5424	6.2376
19	GB	-1.8938	6.2591
20	CAR	-2.2081	6.2784
21	MIN	-5.6129	6.4876
22	JAX	-5.8915	6.5047
23	HOU	-7.1964	6.5849
24	ATL	-7.5464	6.6064
25	BAL	-8.3924	6.6583
26	DEN	-9.6046	6.7328
27	CLE	-9.8830	6.7499
28	OAK	-12.0190	6.8811
29	STL	-12.9060	6.9356
30	CIN	-15.4720	7.0932
31	NYJ	-20.7950	7.4202
32	NO	-29.7690	7.9715

Sack rate made, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0531%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	70.1450	10.2990
2	PIT	47.3110	8.9168
3	KC	32.8830	8.0435
4	CHI	25.2830	7.5835
5	NYG	24.0460	7.5086
6	IND	22.9170	7.4403
7	DAL	20.3530	7.2851
8	JAX	17.7920	7.1300
9	BAL	17.1570	7.0916
10	GB	14.8270	6.9506
11	TEN	13.1320	6.8480
12	TB	9.6431	6.6368
13	PHI	9.4250	6.6236
14	SEA	8.7158	6.5806
15	DET	4.1385	6.3036
16	SD	-0.5180	6.0217
17	WAS	-2.6035	5.8955
18	MIA	-3.0986	5.8655
19	ARI	-4.6242	5.7732
20	STL	-4.8500	5.7595
21	OAK	-6.6925	5.6480
22	CIN	-16.7800	5.0374
23	HOU	-16.9870	5.0248
24	DEN	-17.9450	4.9669
25	NO	-19.4950	4.8730
26	SF	-20.7370	4.7978
27	MIN	-25.6000	4.5035
28	NYJ	-27.1030	4.4125
29	ATL	-32.0530	4.1129
30	CLE	-36.6000	3.8376
31	CAR	-46.0590	3.2651
32	BUF	-58.1090	2.5357

Sack rate allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0531%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NO	70.2960	1.7980
2	IND	48.4600	3.1198
3	CIN	47.6950	3.1661
4	NE	43.8600	3.3982
5	GB	41.7030	3.5288
6	CLE	39.1290	3.6846
7	SD	38.6780	3.7119
8	DAL	38.3750	3.7302
9	WAS	33.9510	3.9980
10	HOU	29.9490	4.2402
11	ARI	29.1690	4.2875
12	NYG	26.6900	4.4375
13	MIA	19.5250	4.8712
14	TB	18.7200	4.9199
15	SEA	18.1450	4.9547
16	DEN	11.1490	5.3782
17	BAL	-10.1890	6.6698
18	CHI	-15.3580	6.9827
19	BUF	-15.6780	7.0021
20	TEN	-16.7410	7.0664
21	CAR	-20.0350	7.2658
22	PHI	-21.1930	7.3359
23	MIN	-27.2500	7.7025
24	JAX	-33.8690	8.1032
25	KC	-40.3920	8.4980
26	NYJ	-40.6600	8.5143
27	SF	-43.9420	8.7129
28	STL	-45.4190	8.8023
29	DET	-47.4870	8.9275
30	ATL	-56.6890	9.4845
31	OAK	-68.2210	10.1825
32	PIT	-81.3470	10.9771

Third down % converted, Adjusted (League Avg = 40.5253%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	24.1370	50.3069
2	DAL	23.7880	50.1655
3	DEN	19.3040	48.3483
4	NO	19.2560	48.3289
5	PIT	18.8960	48.1830
6	NE	18.0370	47.8349
7	CLE	13.8880	46.1535
8	HOU	12.3470	45.5290
9	GB	8.8020	44.0924
10	PHI	7.9477	43.7462
11	CIN	6.9291	43.3334
12	NYG	6.8548	43.3033
13	NYJ	6.8524	43.3023
14	TEN	4.2812	42.2603
15	JAX	2.5866	41.5736
16	TB	2.5614	41.5633
17	SD	1.1920	41.0084
18	MIA	-6.2775	37.9814
19	WAS	-6.4214	37.9230
20	ATL	-6.9079	37.7259
21	SEA	-7.6579	37.4219
22	STL	-8.1517	37.2218
23	ARI	-8.4320	37.1082
24	OAK	-8.6050	37.0381
25	CHI	-9.0672	36.8508
26	CAR	-10.6770	36.1984
27	BUF	-11.6530	35.8029
28	KC	-13.3880	35.0998
29	BAL	-15.7510	34.1422
30	MIN	-21.6680	31.7443
31	DET	-25.1380	30.3381
32	SF	-31.6240	27.7096

Third down % allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 40.5253%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	23.8850	30.8459
2	GB	17.3420	33.4974
3	KC	16.0320	34.0283
4	BAL	15.2840	34.3314
5	ATL	15.1250	34.3959
6	TEN	12.8140	35.3324
7	JAX	11.8580	35.7198
8	SEA	9.6679	36.6074
9	CHI	7.3491	37.5471
10	NYG	5.2966	38.3789
11	TB	4.3724	38.7534
12	STL	3.5556	39.0844
13	OAK	2.5545	39.4901
14	WAS	1.8085	39.7924
15	DAL	0.8087	40.1976
16	PHI	-0.0757	40.5560
17	CAR	-0.9257	40.9005
18	PIT	-1.0047	40.9325
19	SF	-2.3863	41.4924
20	SD	-2.9285	41.7121
21	CLE	-3.0497	41.7612
22	CIN	-4.7592	42.4540
23	BUF	-6.5517	43.1804
24	IND	-7.6914	43.6423
25	HOU	-8.4791	43.9615
26	MIN	-8.9911	44.1690
27	MIA	-11.5910	45.2226
28	NYJ	-11.9350	45.3620
29	DEN	-15.2380	46.7006
30	DET	-17.1780	47.4868
31	ARI	-17.7490	47.7182
32	NO	-22.4200	49.6111

Int. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9555%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	61.7050	1.1318
2	TB	60.3260	1.1726
3	PHI	41.4060	1.7318
4	ATL	27.3010	2.1486
5	JAX	24.5090	2.2312
6	IND	23.6120	2.2577
7	GB	23.1970	2.2699
8	MIN	21.3700	2.3239
9	BAL	18.4050	2.4116
10	WAS	16.6230	2.4642
11	CAR	13.6690	2.5515
12	DEN	10.3810	2.6487
13	SEA	7.6729	2.7288
14	PIT	5.4745	2.7937
15	HOU	5.1620	2.8030
16	CLE	4.1544	2.8327
17	BUF	2.3741	2.8854
18	MIA	1.8024	2.9023
19	SF	-6.5818	3.1501
20	KC	-6.9181	3.1600
21	NO	-8.9251	3.2193
22	NYG	-16.5270	3.4440
23	NYJ	-18.4000	3.4994
24	CIN	-20.5310	3.5623
25	DET	-22.8800	3.6318
26	SD	-29.7020	3.8334
27	CHI	-29.7250	3.8341
28	STL	-30.1120	3.8455
29	TEN	-31.6740	3.8917
30	DAL	-35.7170	4.0112
31	OAK	-47.8560	4.3699
32	ARI	-54.8540	4.5768

Int. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9555%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	73.2760	5.1212
2	SD	47.0770	4.3469
3	MIA	45.4590	4.2991
4	OAK	37.1010	4.0521
5	CIN	36.0470	4.0209
6	JAX	27.3200	3.7630
7	TEN	22.7140	3.6269
8	DAL	22.6740	3.6257
9	NE	16.0110	3.4287
10	KC	10.6890	3.2715
11	ATL	9.3141	3.2308
12	BAL	7.9070	3.1892
13	TB	7.4373	3.1753
14	GB	6.2738	3.1410
15	DEN	3.2088	3.0504
16	DET	-1.1742	2.9208
17	NYG	-3.6734	2.8470
18	NYJ	-5.2331	2.8009
19	ARI	-5.6931	2.7873
20	STL	-6.5968	2.7606
21	BUF	-6.8405	2.7534
22	CLE	-12.5210	2.5855
23	NO	-14.3890	2.5303
24	WAS	-17.6250	2.4346
25	PIT	-17.6880	2.4328
26	HOU	-23.3110	2.2666
27	MIN	-31.7120	2.0183
28	SF	-32.5750	1.9928
29	SEA	-33.8710	1.9545
30	PHI	-34.8620	1.9252
31	CAR	-41.2020	1.7378
32	CHI	-53.8290	1.3646

Fum. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0983%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	47.1910	1.6362
2	PHI	40.1100	1.8556
3	JAX	38.6630	1.9004
4	MIA	37.0530	1.9503
5	NE	34.2450	2.0373
6	TB	33.9640	2.0460
7	ATL	31.6760	2.1169
8	DAL	30.3320	2.1586
9	NYJ	28.4020	2.2184
10	BUF	22.3430	2.4061
11	SD	21.0320	2.4467
12	SEA	19.0280	2.5088
13	NYG	17.4130	2.5588
14	KC	6.6877	2.8911
15	STL	6.1183	2.9088
16	CLE	4.1585	2.9695
17	GB	3.9915	2.9747
18	CIN	2.7704	3.0125
19	NO	2.4567	3.0222
20	PIT	-0.6468	3.1184
21	ARI	-2.0336	3.1614
22	CAR	-11.1400	3.4435
23	MIN	-17.2080	3.6315
24	DEN	-21.6230	3.7683
25	HOU	-27.6200	3.9541
26	CHI	-28.9420	3.9951
27	TEN	-34.5990	4.1703
28	WAS	-45.4740	4.5073
29	SF	-56.5820	4.8514
30	OAK	-56.7450	4.8565
31	BAL	-60.6110	4.9763
32	DET	-77.3300	5.4943

Fum. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0983%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DET	51.1890	4.6844
2	DAL	37.2490	4.2524
3	NE	36.9660	4.2437
4	NYG	33.7100	4.1428
5	PIT	32.8390	4.1158
6	CAR	32.6200	4.1090
7	WAS	28.7310	3.9885
8	SEA	24.9760	3.8722
9	HOU	22.4330	3.7934
10	IND	21.0210	3.7496
11	TEN	17.9890	3.6557
12	MIN	11.4420	3.4529
13	TB	9.1604	3.3822
14	NO	-1.5930	3.0490
15	GB	-3.1430	3.0010
16	MIA	-3.7421	2.9824
17	DEN	-4.5719	2.9567
18	SD	-5.3865	2.9315
19	STL	-6.2530	2.9046
20	BUF	-8.8016	2.8256
21	ARI	-10.7250	2.7660
22	CHI	-11.5640	2.7401
23	CIN	-15.0930	2.6307
24	ATL	-15.4330	2.6202
25	KC	-17.9440	2.5424
26	SF	-23.1800	2.3801
27	BAL	-23.6840	2.3645
28	JAX	-27.3840	2.2499
29	OAK	-34.5190	2.0288
30	CLE	-35.3880	2.0019
31	NYJ	-48.6040	1.5924
32	PHI	-48.9670	1.5812

Read More......