Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 11
Night games added and tables updated. With the Thanksgiving holiday coming up, I'm going to scale back the articles I normally post. I'll just update this article and post predictions for week 12. The rest of the updates will be retroactively added over the weekend. Happy Turkey Day!
The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.
| Home Team | Away Team | P(Home Team Won) (%) | Final Score Margin |
| CIN | ARI | 26.8674 | -8 |
| BAL | CLE | 46.8101 | -3 |
| DAL | WAS | 80.8675 | 5 |
| NYJ | PIT | 90.2544 | 3 |
| SEA | CHI | 85.9746 | 7 |
| SF | STL | 12.5273 | -4 |
| GB | CAR | 83.4122 | 14 |
| HOU | NO | 92.3433 | 13 |
| IND | KC | 39.3445 | 3 |
| JAX | SD | 78.0692 | 7 |
| MIN | OAK | 66.4685 | 7 |
| DET | NYG | 11.3469 | -6 |
| PHI | MIA | 50.9583 | 10 |
| ATL | TB | 1.2857 | -24 |
| BUF | NE | 0.3451 | -46 |
| DEN | TEN | 99.1756 | 14 |
Teams that should've won but didn't
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Colts) Win Prob = 60.6555% The Chiefs had a better day passing (hey, 3 of the Colts 4 best passing targets are injured). Manning threw the only pick. And Indy recovered their only fumble.
| Team | Actual Wins | Expected Wins | Projected Win Total | |
| AFC East | ||||
| BUF | 5.0 | 3.9037 | 6.2460 | |
| MIA | 0.0 | 3.9188 | 6.2701 | |
| NE | 10.0 | 8.8630 | 14.1808 | |
| NYJ | 2.0 | 3.2404 | 5.1846 | |
| AFC North | ||||
| BAL | 4.0 | 4.0799 | 6.5279 | |
| CIN | 3.0 | 3.9365 | 6.2985 | |
| CLE | 6.0 | 4.4641 | 7.1425 | |
| PIT | 7.0 | 7.4777 | 11.9643 | |
| AFC South | ||||
| HOU | 5.0 | 4.7753 | 7.6404 | |
| IND | 8.0 | 8.4411 | 13.5058 | |
| JAX | 7.0 | 6.3066 | 10.0905 | |
| TEN | 6.0 | 4.8085 | 7.6935 | |
| AFC West | ||||
| DEN | 5.0 | 4.5402 | 7.2644 | |
| KC | 4.0 | 5.0674 | 8.1079 | |
| OAK | 2.0 | 2.6541 | 4.2465 | |
| SD | 5.0 | 4.4655 | 7.1448 | |
| NFC East | ||||
| DAL | 9.0 | 8.2148 | 13.1437 | |
| NYG | 7.0 | 5.4931 | 8.7890 | |
| PHI | 5.0 | 5.8725 | 9.3960 | |
| WAS | 5.0 | 4.0063 | 6.4101 | |
| NFC North | ||||
| CHI | 4.0 | 2.5720 | 4.1152 | |
| DET | 6.0 | 5.5119 | 8.8191 | |
| GB | 9.0 | 7.0824 | 11.3319 | |
| MIN | 4.0 | 4.2702 | 6.8324 | |
| NFC South | ||||
| ATL | 3.0 | 5.0092 | 8.0147 | |
| CAR | 4.0 | 3.7475 | 5.9959 | |
| NO | 4.0 | 3.8724 | 6.1958 | |
| TB | 6.0 | 6.9080 | 11.0528 | |
| NFC West | ||||
| ARI | 5.0 | 4.3089 | 6.8942 | |
| STL | 2.0 | 3.9319 | 6.2910 | |
| SF | 2.0 | 1.2973 | 2.0756 | |
| SEA | 6.0 | 6.9588 | 11.1341 | |
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