Power Rankings 2007 Week 5

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The first power rankings use linear regression to predict the final score margins of each such game. The score you see along with the rankings is the sum of all of those expected margins.

The second power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

From here on out, the power rankings will be based on the adjusted VOLA (value over league average) stats.

For the logisitc regression rankings based on opponent-adjusted stats, the Colts, Pats, and Cowboys form the top 3, though the Pats are #1 in the unadjusted stats power rankings. As it likely should be, Denver falls to #20 while the Chargers climb from the bottom to reach #18. Miami is still unusually high despite being 0-5 (#13). The unadjusted rankings make more sense, putting the Fins at #22 (about where FO's rankings put them). This might be an indictment of the way I adjust for opponent quality. Tampa Bay and Washington are #8 and #5 respectively (kudos to Football Outsiders). Opponent adjustments bring the Vikings down from #7 (really, really strong run defense) to #12.


Based on opponent-adjusted stats

Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	IND	11.1960
2	NE	10.8164
3	DAL	10.1442
4	NYG	9.8800
5	WAS	9.8792
6	PIT	9.6669
7	PHI	9.5689
8	TB	9.4077
9	JAX	9.0579
10	SEA	8.9058
11	HOU	8.7405
12	MIN	8.7397
13	MIA	8.7044
14	TEN	8.4941
15	GB	8.2460
16	ARI	8.1529
17	CLE	7.8998
18	SD	7.8593
19	ATL	7.7065
20	DEN	7.6849
21	CIN	7.5833
22	BAL	7.0963
23	KC	7.0530
24	DET	6.6802
25	BUF	6.4155
26	CAR	6.4130
27	OAK	6.3809
28	STL	5.9181
29	CHI	5.6514
30	SF	5.5273
31	NYJ	5.5242
32	NO	5.0057

Power Rankings, Linear Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Point Differential
1	IND	6.8148
2	NE	5.8376
3	DAL	4.1081
4	NYG	3.7282
5	WAS	3.5712
6	PIT	3.1057
7	PHI	2.7101
8	TB	2.6651
9	JAX	2.1593
10	SEA	1.5993
11	TEN	1.4235
12	HOU	1.3816
13	MIA	1.0793
14	MIN	0.8678
15	GB	0.7365
16	SD	0.1476
17	ARI	0.0165
18	CLE	-0.0998
19	ATL	-0.2166
20	DEN	-0.5562
21	CIN	-0.6609
22	BAL	-1.3696
23	KC	-2.0231
24	CAR	-3.1265
25	BUF	-3.1674
26	DET	-3.1868
27	OAK	-3.3282
28	STL	-4.1517
29	NYJ	-4.5165
30	CHI	-4.6071
31	SF	-5.2781
32	NO	-5.6636

Based on unadjusted stats

Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	12.1346
2	DAL	11.6354
3	IND	11.0115
4	PIT	10.9498
5	TB	9.9379
6	WAS	9.7616
7	MIN	9.1091
8	JAX	9.0684
9	PHI	9.0539
10	NYG	8.7927
11	TEN	8.6625
12	HOU	8.6241
13	ARI	8.6119
14	SEA	8.5327
15	GB	8.1879
16	BAL	8.1222
17	DEN	8.0696
18	SD	7.7974
19	MIA	7.5571
20	CAR	7.5435
21	DET	7.3763
22	KC	7.3458
23	CLE	7.0781
24	ATL	7.0505
25	OAK	6.8493
26	CIN	6.6544
27	NYJ	5.5382
28	STL	5.5208
29	SF	5.3025
30	CHI	5.0989
31	BUF	4.9965
32	NO	4.0248

Power Rankings, Linear Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Point Differential
1	NE	8.9585
2	DAL	7.8410
3	IND	6.4341
4	PIT	6.1485
5	TB	3.5604
6	WAS	3.5340
7	JAX	2.2024
8	PHI	1.7959
9	MIN	1.6991
10	TEN	1.5469
11	NYG	1.4447
12	HOU	1.2199
13	SEA	1.0339
14	ARI	0.8937
15	GB	0.6481
16	BAL	0.5864
17	DEN	0.0700
18	SD	-0.1107
19	CAR	-1.1566
20	ATL	-1.4169
21	MIA	-1.4296
22	KC	-1.5473
23	DET	-1.6314
24	CLE	-1.8795
25	OAK	-2.2035
26	CIN	-2.5017
27	NYJ	-4.5871
28	STL	-4.8010
29	SF	-5.8941
30	CHI	-5.8992
31	BUF	-6.5439
32	NO	-8.0149