Win Probabilities 2007 - Wild Card

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
PIT	JAX	71.8961	-2
SEA	WAS	77.9485	21
TB	NYG	10.7964	-10
SD	TEN	90.3689	11

Teams that "should have" won but didn't
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Jaguars), Win Prob = 71.8961% Pittsburgh was more efficient passing (6.2 yards per pass vs. 4.2) and on 3rd downs. Despite the fact that Pittsburgh threw 3 picks and gave up a fumble, they ran 20 more plays overall, weighing down their turnover rates compared to the Jags' 2 picks on 25 pass plays.

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Football Professor Podcast Interview - 2007 Playoffs Edition

After the article I posted on Wednesday, Doug Walters over at the Football Professor blog and I decided to do another podcast about our expectations for the 2007 playoffs. Listen to it here or on Doug's blog.

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2007 Playoff Predictions (Full Bracket)

As my prediction system is going to be picking all the home teams from this point out, I thought I'd go through each round and pick games using the system's predictions, reasoning based on past research, and maybe a smidgen of personal bias. (No, the tattoo is German for "The Brady, The.")


WILD CARD ROUND

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
JAX @ PIT	4.5528	65.8528
TEN @ SD	5.1989	66.2033
NYG @ TB	4.8507	67.0733
WAS @ SEA	1.8597	57.9650

This year, my prediction system using unadjusted stats was wrong more often than not when the projected probability of the home team winning was between 50 and 60%. Therefore, I'm picking Seattle to lose to Washington.
When the project probability of the home team winning was between 60 and 70%, the system was correct 2 out of 3 times. There are 3 such games in the wild card round. Since Pittsburgh's starting running back is out and they have the lowest probability of winning of the three, I'm picking Jacksonville to beat Pittsburgh.
San Diego and Tampa Bay should win their games as predicted.

DIVISIONAL ROUND

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
JAX @ NE	5.2105	65.7171
SD @ IND	7.5747	74.7456
WAS @ DAL	4.6129	66.0576
TB @ GB	2.2508	57.1654

Surprisingly, Green Bay is not seen as a very heavy favorite against Tampa Bay. The weather might tilt things more heavily in Green Bay's favor. But Tampa Bay is seen as the better team overall, despite their 9-7 record (a GB@TB game is given a 61% probability of a Bucs win). So that's the one upset I'd pick.


CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
IND @ NE	4.2100	63.4600
TB @ DAL	4.5360	64.1551

In this article, I looked into the relative importance of defense in the postseason. In short, teams with good offenses tend to make the playoffs, so having a good defense in addition will get you deeper into the playoffs. The Patriots' pass offense has looked ridiculously good, but they are ranked 14th in rush offense VOLA and 26th in rush defense VOLA. Indy is ranked 21st and 7th, in the same categories respectively. Rush defense has shown to be of more importance in winning the Super Bowl than rush offense (though Baltimore and Tampa Bay might be skewing the sample there). Pass defense is essential, and they are both about equally good. Indy is 4th and New England is 5th in unadjusted pass defense VOLA. Indy's pass offense has also been hampered by injuries, weighing down their numbers. New England has the weather advantage over the dome team, but I'll go with the slightly better balanced Colts upsetting the Pats, leaving them at 17-1.

Dallas is simply a much better team than the Bucs.

SUPER BOWL

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
DAL @ IND	4.9458	65.7789
IND @ DAL	3.7298	63.1363

Indy is seen as a stronger team. Given the neutral site, I'm picking the Colts to repeat as champions.

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Predicitons 2007 Wild Card Round and End of Year Accuracy Report

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
JAX @ PIT	3.6493	62.5294
TEN @ SD	4.5850	64.7420
NYG @ TB	4.3751	65.1118
WAS @ SEA	0.2934	51.9924

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
JAX @ PIT	4.5528	65.8528
TEN @ SD	5.1989	66.2033
NYG @ TB	4.8507	67.0733
WAS @ SEA	1.8597	57.9650

Final Accuracy Numbers for 2007 Season (weeks 3-17)
OPPONENT ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 66.9643%
Mean absolute error: 11.3762 points
Correlation with result: 0.4032
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.8750%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 66.0714%
Correlation with result: 0.3939
% of games predicted as home team wins: 73.6607%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 76.1905
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 50.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 74.5763
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 65.8537
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 90.9091

UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.1786%
Mean absolute error: 11.4125 points
Correlation with result: 0.3864
% of games predicted as home team wins: 70.0893%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 62.9464%
Correlation with result: 0.3775
% of games predicted as home team wins: 70.5357%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 70.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 52.6316
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 46.5116
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 66.1017
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 76.1905
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 69.2308
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000

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Power Rankings 2007 Week 17

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	10.5759
2	IND	10.3170
3	DAL	10.1534
4	PIT	9.8614
5	TB	9.5910
6	JAX	9.5862
7	GB	9.2658
8	WAS	9.1119
9	MIN	9.1075
10	PHI	9.0675
11	SD	8.7100
12	NYG	8.6673
13	TEN	8.4478
14	SEA	8.3719
15	DEN	8.2001
16	HOU	7.9178
17	CLE	7.7195
18	CIN	7.5846
19	CAR	7.4754
20	ARI	7.3438
21	BUF	7.2895
22	NO	7.2215
23	ATL	7.1775
24	DET	7.1663
25	BAL	6.7068
26	NYJ	6.6356
27	CHI	6.5820
28	STL	6.4483
29	KC	6.2941
30	MIA	6.1462
31	SF	5.6674
32	OAK	5.5888

Power Rankings, Unadjusted
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	10.5837
2	PIT	10.2658
3	IND	10.1597
4	DAL	10.0700
5	TB	9.8437
6	MIN	9.6704
7	GB	9.5724
8	JAX	9.5190
9	SEA	8.8647
10	SD	8.8134
11	PHI	8.7488
12	WAS	8.7349
13	NYG	8.5790
14	TEN	8.4120
15	DEN	8.2860
16	CLE	8.2273
17	CIN	7.9928
18	ARI	7.8841
19	HOU	7.6742
20	NO	7.3013
21	CAR	7.1811
22	DET	7.0157
23	ATL	6.9466
24	BUF	6.8609
25	NYJ	6.6046
26	BAL	6.5961
27	STL	6.4422
28	KC	6.1708
29	CHI	6.1171
30	MIA	5.7952
31	OAK	5.5368
32	SF	5.5296

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The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 17

All Games
Home Team Win %: 56.6667%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.7000

Interconference
Home Team Win %: 65.0000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 5.6000

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 63.0435%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 3.2935

Intradivsion
Home Team Win %: 44.3182%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 0.1023

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Stats (Raw and VOLA) 2007 Week 17

These are the final statistical rankings of 2007. The stats included are what I use in my predictions.

Rush offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0326)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	31.9550	5.3212
2	PHI	16.2740	4.6888
3	NYG	13.9220	4.5940
4	JAX	13.2270	4.5660
5	DEN	13.1230	4.5618
6	CLE	7.3827	4.3303
7	PIT	5.2213	4.2431
8	SD	4.2539	4.2041
9	DAL	3.6521	4.1799
10	TB	3.3894	4.1693
11	OAK	2.6158	4.1381
12	SF	2.5956	4.1373
13	GB	2.0681	4.1160
14	NE	1.6663	4.0998
15	CAR	0.2917	4.0443
16	BUF	-0.3652	4.0179
17	MIA	-1.1251	3.9872
18	DET	-2.0251	3.9509
19	ATL	-2.0962	3.9481
20	TEN	-3.6851	3.8840
21	IND	-5.1449	3.8251
22	NYJ	-5.4229	3.8139
23	HOU	-5.6843	3.8034
24	SEA	-6.1713	3.7837
25	STL	-6.2709	3.7797
26	WAS	-6.9702	3.7515
27	NO	-7.1029	3.7462
28	CIN	-7.2459	3.7404
29	ARI	-10.5540	3.6070
30	BAL	-18.3850	3.2912
31	KC	-19.4060	3.2500
32	CHI	-22.0380	3.1439

Rush defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0326)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	BAL	29.0050	2.8629
2	MIN	22.9300	3.1079
3	PIT	22.6470	3.1193
4	WAS	7.8299	3.7168
5	CAR	7.0468	3.7484
6	SF	6.7123	3.7619
7	IND	6.5432	3.7687
8	TB	5.7239	3.8018
9	NYG	5.7191	3.8020
10	PHI	5.5079	3.8105
11	ARI	4.0372	3.8698
12	GB	3.9514	3.8732
13	SEA	3.3936	3.8957
14	DAL	1.2648	3.9816
15	TEN	1.1431	3.9865
16	NO	-0.0429	4.0343
17	JAX	-2.0607	4.1157
18	STL	-2.5281	4.1345
19	SD	-2.6494	4.1394
20	NYJ	-3.4129	4.1702
21	CIN	-4.5493	4.2160
22	ATL	-5.4432	4.2521
23	DET	-5.7790	4.2656
24	KC	-7.6986	4.3430
25	CHI	-8.0054	4.3554
26	NE	-8.4481	4.3733
27	HOU	-8.5284	4.3765
28	BUF	-8.7842	4.3868
29	CLE	-11.6990	4.5044
30	MIA	-11.9560	4.5147
31	DEN	-12.9520	4.5549
32	OAK	-19.0920	4.8025

Pass offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0498)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	26.1090	7.6294
2	DAL	21.7600	7.3662
3	GB	20.2550	7.2752
4	IND	16.1090	7.0244
5	HOU	12.5260	6.8076
6	CIN	11.9930	6.7754
7	JAX	10.3400	6.6754
8	ARI	9.0406	6.5967
9	CLE	8.8018	6.5823
10	DEN	8.3027	6.5521
11	NO	6.7753	6.4597
12	TB	5.4931	6.3821
13	SEA	4.6689	6.3323
14	PIT	3.7308	6.2755
15	WAS	2.0814	6.1757
16	SD	0.3455	6.0707
17	DET	0.2890	6.0673
18	PHI	-0.8497	5.9984
19	MIN	-3.3961	5.8443
20	TEN	-3.8954	5.8141
21	CHI	-7.4626	5.5983
22	BUF	-7.5614	5.5924
23	NYG	-8.6972	5.5236
24	ATL	-9.1568	5.4958
25	STL	-11.0820	5.3794
26	NYJ	-11.7940	5.3363
27	OAK	-12.1560	5.3144
28	KC	-14.7810	5.1556
29	MIA	-15.6940	5.1004
30	BAL	-15.8270	5.0923
31	CAR	-16.6770	5.0409
32	SF	-32.4270	4.0880

Pass defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0498)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	PIT	15.2830	5.1252
2	TB	13.5600	5.2295
3	TEN	13.2750	5.2467
4	IND	13.1420	5.2547
5	NE	12.2180	5.3106
6	WAS	10.5890	5.4092
7	DAL	10.1290	5.4370
8	NYG	6.8706	5.6341
9	SD	5.7793	5.7002
10	SEA	5.4882	5.7178
11	JAX	2.7010	5.8864
12	GB	2.1328	5.9208
13	PHI	1.2236	5.9758
14	KC	-0.1725	6.0602
15	CLE	-0.4042	6.0743
16	CAR	-1.0953	6.1161
17	ARI	-1.3043	6.1287
18	MIN	-2.4197	6.1962
19	DEN	-4.1591	6.3014
20	NYJ	-4.2678	6.3080
21	SF	-4.4178	6.3171
22	HOU	-5.0392	6.3547
23	CHI	-5.1410	6.3608
24	BUF	-6.4642	6.4409
25	DET	-6.8594	6.4648
26	ATL	-7.2650	6.4893
27	STL	-8.3830	6.5570
28	CIN	-8.4120	6.5587
29	MIA	-11.8950	6.7694
30	BAL	-12.2300	6.7897
31	OAK	-13.7810	6.8835
32	NO	-16.6580	7.0576

Sack rate made, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0353%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NYG	50.1030	9.0592
2	NE	35.9070	8.2024
3	KC	23.1040	7.4297
4	SEA	21.6330	7.3410
5	DAL	21.5590	7.3365
6	CHI	19.5710	7.2165
7	SD	16.5660	7.0352
8	MIA	13.4870	6.8493
9	DEN	11.3600	6.7210
10	PIT	8.2553	6.5336
11	TEN	6.2819	6.4145
12	JAX	5.5174	6.3683
13	BAL	4.5468	6.3098
14	PHI	3.1984	6.2284
15	GB	2.0982	6.1620
16	TB	1.3787	6.1185
17	ARI	-1.5698	5.9406
18	OAK	-1.6780	5.9341
19	NYJ	-3.8994	5.8000
20	DET	-4.0601	5.7903
21	NO	-4.6384	5.7554
22	STL	-10.1140	5.4249
23	SF	-10.5150	5.4007
24	HOU	-11.1350	5.3633
25	IND	-11.8000	5.3232
26	MIN	-15.0930	5.1244
27	WAS	-16.2380	5.0553
28	CLE	-23.4430	4.6205
29	ATL	-26.2940	4.4484
30	BUF	-30.0290	4.2230
31	CAR	-31.9480	4.1072
32	CIN	-35.1390	3.9146

Sack rate allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0353%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NO	62.9050	2.2388
2	CIN	52.4200	2.8716
3	GB	47.1790	3.1879
4	NE	42.6770	3.4596
5	CLE	41.3480	3.5398
6	ARI	35.3400	3.9025
7	HOU	33.8440	3.9927
8	IND	33.6080	4.0070
9	DAL	22.6580	4.6679
10	SD	19.6650	4.8485
11	NYG	18.7510	4.9037
12	WAS	15.9540	5.0725
13	BUF	8.5359	5.5202
14	SEA	4.7146	5.7508
15	DEN	3.0694	5.8501
16	JAX	0.3863	6.0120
17	TEN	-0.4186	6.0606
18	CAR	-1.6319	6.1338
19	BAL	-8.4218	6.5436
20	MIA	-10.8300	6.6890
21	TB	-13.4010	6.8441
22	CHI	-18.7450	7.1667
23	ATL	-26.8180	7.6539
24	PHI	-29.6940	7.8275
25	MIN	-30.7160	7.8892
26	DET	-32.2410	7.9812
27	STL	-32.3320	7.9867
28	OAK	-41.1560	8.5192
29	KC	-45.0130	8.7520
30	NYJ	-55.4270	9.3805
31	SF	-57.5230	9.5070
32	PIT	-58.9280	9.5918

Third down % converted, Unadjusted (League Avg = 39.5132%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	24.6700	49.2611
2	NE	21.9020	48.1674
3	PIT	18.4870	46.8180
4	NO	17.0790	46.2616
5	CIN	16.8060	46.1538
6	JAX	15.5620	45.6622
7	HOU	12.7710	44.5594
8	GB	8.2830	42.7861
9	PHI	7.1998	42.3581
10	DAL	6.8278	42.2111
11	CLE	6.6906	42.1569
12	NYG	5.6435	41.7431
13	TEN	3.7978	41.0138
14	WAS	3.0237	40.7080
15	DEN	2.2546	40.4041
16	SD	-0.6602	39.2523
17	TB	-2.5701	38.4977
18	BAL	-2.6615	38.4615
19	NYJ	-4.8150	37.6106
20	MIA	-5.9657	37.1560
21	ATL	-8.1650	36.2869
22	CAR	-8.4604	36.1702
23	SEA	-8.9385	35.9813
24	OAK	-8.9800	35.9649
25	STL	-9.2090	35.8744
26	ARI	-9.4370	35.7843
27	MIN	-12.6870	34.5002
28	KC	-13.8220	34.0517
29	CHI	-13.8680	34.0335
30	BUF	-15.6400	33.3333
31	DET	-17.4160	32.6316
32	SF	-20.6250	31.3636

Third down % allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 39.5132%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	KC	20.5300	31.4011
2	CHI	17.1530	32.7355
3	GB	16.4470	33.0145
4	NE	14.7380	33.6897
5	NYG	12.4420	34.5970
6	WAS	9.0311	35.9447
7	BAL	7.3546	36.6072
8	CLE	7.0078	36.7442
9	SEA	6.5885	36.9099
10	ATL	5.9988	37.1429
11	PHI	5.9657	37.1560
12	STL	1.2988	39.0000
13	OAK	1.1783	39.0476
14	SD	0.4472	39.3365
15	DAL	0.4083	39.3519
16	JAX	-0.7284	39.8010
17	MIN	-1.6646	40.1709
18	SF	-1.8621	40.2490
19	PIT	-2.4091	40.4651
20	TB	-2.8138	40.6250
21	ARI	-3.7978	41.0138
22	NO	-5.6548	41.7476
23	HOU	-6.0891	41.9192
24	TEN	-6.7338	42.1739
25	NYJ	-6.7494	42.1801
26	CAR	-7.5030	42.4779
27	DEN	-8.1234	42.7230
28	CIN	-8.2830	42.7861
29	BUF	-14.1120	45.0893
30	IND	-14.3730	45.1924
31	DET	-15.2520	45.5397
32	MIA	-19.2400	47.1155

Int. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9542%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	49.8100	1.4827
2	TB	48.5160	1.5209
3	JAX	45.7310	1.6032
4	WAS	32.5440	1.9928
5	SEA	29.7040	2.0767
6	BAL	20.4850	2.3490
7	GB	20.4850	2.3490
8	PHI	18.8890	2.3962
9	IND	17.4380	2.4390
10	ATL	15.5150	2.4958
11	MIA	9.4302	2.6756
12	NO	9.0584	2.6866
13	DEN	7.1742	2.7422
14	PIT	3.2844	2.8571
15	BUF	-0.6171	2.9724
16	MIN	-1.0462	2.9851
17	CAR	-6.9624	3.1599
18	SF	-7.2726	3.1690
19	SD	-9.4157	3.2323
20	KC	-9.7260	3.2415
21	NYJ	-13.8330	3.3628
22	CIN	-14.3600	3.3784
23	DAL	-15.4680	3.4111
24	TEN	-16.2540	3.4343
25	CHI	-18.4770	3.5000
26	NYG	-18.5660	3.5026
27	CLE	-19.8250	3.5398
28	DET	-21.8400	3.5994
29	HOU	-29.0130	3.8113
30	ARI	-32.0990	3.9024
31	OAK	-37.3240	4.0568
32	STL	-57.7060	4.6589

Int. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9542%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	SD	70.1030	5.0251
2	IND	41.5800	4.1825
3	OAK	33.9140	3.9560
4	TEN	22.4850	3.6184
5	JAX	16.5250	3.4423
6	CIN	14.4410	3.3808
7	GB	13.2320	3.3451
8	NE	12.2440	3.3159
9	SEA	10.4420	3.2626
10	STL	10.1820	3.2550
11	BAL	10.0300	3.2505
12	TB	10.0300	3.2505
13	MIA	8.1978	3.1963
14	BUF	2.9237	3.0405
15	DAL	2.5772	3.0303
16	NYJ	1.5514	3.0000
17	ARI	0.5459	2.9703
18	DEN	-3.4814	2.8513
19	ATL	-3.6286	2.8470
20	KC	-4.8380	2.8112
21	CLE	-5.0399	2.8053
22	DET	-9.9440	2.6604
23	CHI	-12.7570	2.5773
24	CAR	-15.3740	2.5000
25	MIN	-15.7460	2.4890
26	NYG	-17.4380	2.4390
27	NO	-20.8530	2.3381
28	WAS	-25.1330	2.2117
29	SF	-29.2320	2.0906
30	PIT	-32.4220	1.9964
31	HOU	-35.5790	1.9031
32	PHI	-35.5790	1.9031

Fum. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0952%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	48.3080	1.6000
2	IND	45.1080	1.6990
3	JAX	30.8520	2.1403
4	SD	30.4770	2.1519
5	ATL	28.3920	2.2164
6	TB	27.3980	2.2472
7	SEA	22.8010	2.3895
8	DAL	21.8030	2.4204
9	CIN	19.8320	2.4814
10	PIT	19.2310	2.5000
11	NYJ	16.1360	2.5958
12	BUF	12.3260	2.7137
13	PHI	9.3809	2.8049
14	KC	8.0506	2.8461
15	CLE	6.9674	2.8796
16	NO	0.9434	3.0660
17	STL	-0.2100	3.1017
18	GB	-2.2395	3.1646
19	CAR	-5.0315	3.2510
20	NYG	-5.2632	3.2581
21	HOU	-7.0064	3.3121
22	MIN	-7.5544	3.3291
23	ARI	-11.4060	3.4483
24	MIA	-12.1500	3.4713
25	TEN	-16.3230	3.6005
26	BAL	-22.1130	3.7797
27	DEN	-23.1550	3.8119
28	WAS	-33.8190	4.1420
29	CHI	-35.9890	4.2092
30	DET	-47.4450	4.5638
31	SF	-65.0760	5.1095
32	OAK	-67.7280	5.1916

Fum. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0952%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DET	42.4820	4.4102
2	MIN	36.2370	4.2169
3	DEN	35.1120	4.1820
4	CHI	27.2260	3.9379
5	SEA	25.1920	3.8750
6	TB	23.7840	3.8314
7	PIT	19.6580	3.7037
8	CAR	16.3540	3.6014
9	NO	13.7300	3.5202
10	BUF	12.3410	3.4772
11	TEN	10.8180	3.4301
12	SD	9.5864	3.3920
13	DAL	9.3750	3.3854
14	WAS	8.3871	3.3548
15	IND	8.0927	3.3457
16	NE	7.6923	3.3333
17	CIN	5.8626	3.2767
18	NYG	5.3054	3.2595
19	STL	-2.3445	3.0227
20	HOU	-4.1552	2.9666
21	ARI	-7.5775	2.8607
22	MIA	-16.7530	2.5767
23	JAX	-17.7150	2.5469
24	ATL	-19.4230	2.4941
25	OAK	-19.7590	2.4836
26	KC	-22.6890	2.3930
27	CLE	-25.8640	2.2947
28	GB	-27.2540	2.2517
29	PHI	-31.2600	2.1277
30	SF	-37.5870	1.9318
31	NYJ	-41.9620	1.7964
32	BAL	-49.7160	1.5564

Rush offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0326)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	27.3250	5.1345
2	PHI	16.9930	4.7178
3	NYG	13.2770	4.5680
4	JAX	13.1990	4.5648
5	DEN	11.9600	4.5149
6	CLE	9.9252	4.4328
7	SF	7.7153	4.3437
8	DAL	5.2620	4.2448
9	TB	3.9410	4.1915
10	PIT	3.6697	4.1806
11	ATL	2.7387	4.1430
12	CAR	1.9809	4.1125
13	GB	1.2391	4.0826
14	NE	0.5703	4.0556
15	BUF	0.2554	4.0429
16	SD	-0.5633	4.0099
17	STL	-1.1366	3.9867
18	SEA	-1.8567	3.9577
19	DET	-2.6271	3.9266
20	OAK	-2.6813	3.9245
21	MIA	-3.0929	3.9079
22	CIN	-4.2773	3.8601
23	NYJ	-4.8878	3.8355
24	NO	-5.3470	3.8170
25	WAS	-5.4672	3.8121
26	ARI	-6.7692	3.7596
27	TEN	-6.8637	3.7558
28	IND	-7.0157	3.7497
29	HOU	-9.2523	3.6595
30	BAL	-17.7340	3.3174
31	CHI	-20.9860	3.1863
32	KC	-23.2540	3.0948

Rush defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0326)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	BAL	28.3610	2.8889
2	MIN	22.2450	3.1355
3	PIT	19.9080	3.2298
4	WAS	11.5080	3.5685
5	NYG	7.8346	3.7166
6	IND	6.7517	3.7603
7	CAR	6.0422	3.7889
8	SF	5.5584	3.8084
9	PHI	4.8629	3.8365
10	GB	4.1948	3.8634
11	DAL	4.1612	3.8648
12	TB	3.1338	3.9062
13	TEN	1.0514	3.9902
14	ARI	0.7462	4.0025
15	CHI	-0.3373	4.0462
16	SEA	-0.3609	4.0471
17	SD	-0.9100	4.0693
18	DET	-1.4781	4.0922
19	NO	-1.7743	4.1041
20	JAX	-3.9056	4.1901
21	NYJ	-3.9896	4.1935
22	ATL	-4.1789	4.2011
23	STL	-4.9066	4.2304
24	KC	-5.4809	4.2536
25	BUF	-5.5160	4.2550
26	HOU	-7.2551	4.3252
27	CIN	-7.3524	4.3291
28	NE	-10.2560	4.4462
29	MIA	-11.8080	4.5088
30	DEN	-12.3950	4.5324
31	CLE	-16.5260	4.6990
32	OAK	-18.2900	4.7701

Pass offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0498)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	27.8530	7.7349
2	DAL	22.3610	7.4026
3	GB	18.8860	7.1924
4	IND	16.4340	7.0440
5	HOU	14.7600	6.9428
6	CIN	12.6600	6.8157
7	JAX	10.8110	6.7039
8	DEN	8.3618	6.5557
9	NO	7.8964	6.5275
10	ARI	7.5365	6.5058
11	CLE	6.0298	6.4146
12	WAS	5.0080	6.3528
13	TB	3.5605	6.2652
14	DET	1.0925	6.1159
15	SEA	1.0382	6.1126
16	PHI	0.7781	6.0969
17	PIT	-0.1961	6.0379
18	SD	-0.7072	6.0070
19	TEN	-3.4709	5.8398
20	MIN	-4.7539	5.7622
21	NYG	-6.7085	5.6440
22	BUF	-6.7247	5.6430
23	CHI	-7.3503	5.6051
24	ATL	-9.8392	5.4546
25	NYJ	-10.2350	5.4306
26	OAK	-11.7660	5.3380
27	STL	-11.7660	5.3380
28	MIA	-15.1950	5.1305
29	KC	-15.3610	5.1205
30	BAL	-15.5840	5.1070
31	CAR	-15.7610	5.0963
32	SF	-33.0110	4.0527

Pass defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0498)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	TEN	15.9190	5.0867
2	PIT	15.1870	5.1310
3	IND	13.9030	5.2087
4	TB	12.1180	5.3167
5	WAS	11.7100	5.3414
6	NE	10.1800	5.4339
7	DAL	8.4815	5.5367
8	NYG	7.4772	5.5975
9	SD	7.2659	5.6102
10	PHI	4.6990	5.7655
11	JAX	4.3947	5.7839
12	KC	2.9935	5.8687
13	SEA	2.8629	5.8766
14	CAR	1.8253	5.9394
15	GB	-0.9444	6.1069
16	CHI	-1.8111	6.1594
17	BUF	-2.7865	6.2184
18	CLE	-3.6632	6.2714
19	DEN	-4.1712	6.3022
20	HOU	-4.2510	6.3070
21	MIN	-4.2598	6.3075
22	SF	-4.3013	6.3100
23	NYJ	-5.8130	6.4015
24	DET	-6.1167	6.4199
25	ARI	-6.9866	6.4725
26	MIA	-7.2453	6.4881
27	ATL	-7.7135	6.5165
28	STL	-8.9262	6.5898
29	BAL	-10.7900	6.7026
30	OAK	-11.0250	6.7168
31	CIN	-14.4080	6.9215
32	NO	-19.4860	7.2287

Sack rate made, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0353%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	39.6730	8.4297
2	KC	36.4700	8.2364
3	NYG	32.8180	8.0160
4	CHI	28.2900	7.7427
5	DAL	27.4620	7.6928
6	TB	25.6460	7.5832
7	PIT	20.1420	7.2510
8	PHI	18.9160	7.1770
9	TEN	17.1910	7.0729
10	MIA	16.6790	7.0420
11	BAL	16.5290	7.0329
12	SD	10.7670	6.6852
13	SEA	9.9082	6.6333
14	JAX	3.1362	6.2246
15	IND	0.0909	6.0408
16	OAK	-4.7762	5.7471
17	DEN	-6.4860	5.6439
18	HOU	-6.7001	5.6310
19	DET	-8.3138	5.5336
20	NYJ	-8.6118	5.5156
21	STL	-9.5589	5.4584
22	GB	-9.8928	5.4383
23	ARI	-10.3190	5.4126
24	NO	-12.1060	5.3047
25	SF	-12.1690	5.3009
26	WAS	-15.3350	5.1098
27	ATL	-21.6620	4.7280
28	MIN	-21.9720	4.7093
29	BUF	-32.4390	4.0775
30	CLE	-35.6660	3.8828
31	CAR	-36.1510	3.8535
32	CIN	-39.0760	3.6770

Sack rate allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0353%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NO	63.6810	2.1920
2	CIN	55.7920	2.6681
3	GB	49.4420	3.0513
4	NE	45.1820	3.3085
5	CLE	41.3020	3.5426
6	IND	33.9450	3.9866
7	HOU	33.1530	4.0344
8	ARI	28.4570	4.3179
9	SD	26.3170	4.4470
10	DAL	25.0010	4.5264
11	BUF	22.1950	4.6958
12	WAS	21.0260	4.7663
13	NYG	16.3790	5.0468
14	DEN	3.3992	5.8302
15	CAR	-4.9442	6.3337
16	JAX	-5.9388	6.3938
17	SEA	-7.1679	6.4679
18	TEN	-7.8292	6.5079
19	CHI	-8.9104	6.5731
20	MIA	-12.4530	6.7869
21	BAL	-17.4510	7.0886
22	MIN	-17.8540	7.1129
23	PHI	-19.0270	7.1837
24	TB	-26.2340	7.6187
25	DET	-28.6550	7.7648
26	ATL	-31.3430	7.9270
27	STL	-32.2840	7.9838
28	OAK	-33.4850	8.0563
29	KC	-46.7660	8.8578
30	NYJ	-52.0650	9.1776
31	PIT	-61.6820	9.7581
32	SF	-67.9290	10.1351

Third down % converted, Adjusted (League Avg = 39.5132%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	24.1180	49.0430
2	NE	18.0400	46.6414
3	PIT	17.4150	46.3944
4	CIN	15.7380	45.7318
5	NO	15.4370	45.6128
6	GB	12.2140	44.3393
7	JAX	11.9060	44.2176
8	HOU	11.4850	44.0513
9	PHI	11.1030	43.9003
10	DAL	9.4161	43.2338
11	NYG	9.2930	43.1852
12	CLE	4.0225	41.1026
13	WAS	3.7069	40.9779
14	SD	2.1176	40.3499
15	DEN	1.6808	40.1773
16	TEN	-0.1264	39.4632
17	NYJ	-3.8658	37.9857
18	MIA	-4.5443	37.7176
19	TB	-5.5263	37.3296
20	BAL	-5.9007	37.1816
21	SEA	-7.3224	36.6199
22	STL	-7.8951	36.3936
23	MIN	-8.6958	36.0772
24	ARI	-8.8998	35.9966
25	CAR	-9.5702	35.7317
26	OAK	-10.3760	35.4133
27	ATL	-10.7300	35.2734
28	CHI	-11.3890	35.0130
29	DET	-12.3470	34.6345
30	BUF	-15.5520	33.3681
31	KC	-15.8750	33.2405
32	SF	-21.1510	31.1558

Third down % allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 39.5132%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	KC	21.9600	30.8361
2	NE	15.6530	33.3282
3	CHI	14.7230	33.6957
4	NYG	10.8990	35.2066
5	GB	10.4520	35.3833
6	BAL	8.9285	35.9853
7	WAS	8.1592	36.2892
8	ATL	6.6149	36.8994
9	CLE	6.3882	36.9890
10	SEA	6.2955	37.0256
11	PHI	6.2595	37.0399
12	JAX	2.3301	38.5925
13	OAK	1.2392	39.0235
14	SD	0.6767	39.2458
15	DAL	0.5928	39.2790
16	TB	-0.2014	39.5928
17	STL	-0.2253	39.6022
18	HOU	-1.4441	40.0838
19	TEN	-2.0955	40.3412
20	PIT	-2.9718	40.6874
21	NYJ	-3.2987	40.8166
22	CAR	-3.7188	40.9826
23	SF	-4.3273	41.2230
24	MIN	-6.2388	41.9783
25	BUF	-6.9531	42.2606
26	ARI	-7.5343	42.4902
27	DEN	-9.4557	43.2494
28	CIN	-10.7950	43.7786
29	NO	-11.0640	43.8849
30	IND	-12.0730	44.2836
31	MIA	-16.3350	45.9677
32	DET	-21.1440	47.8679

Int. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9542%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	57.9490	1.2423
2	TB	47.3790	1.5545
3	JAX	44.8090	1.6304
4	IND	36.9280	1.8633
5	WAS	33.0460	1.9779
6	BAL	26.3020	2.1772
7	PHI	25.0720	2.2135
8	SEA	21.0900	2.3311
9	ATL	18.1000	2.4195
10	DEN	16.1240	2.4778
11	GB	12.0400	2.5985
12	MIA	10.4240	2.6462
13	PIT	7.8241	2.7230
14	NO	4.3382	2.8260
15	SD	1.0088	2.9244
16	BUF	0.6830	2.9340
17	KC	0.1730	2.9491
18	HOU	-2.7752	3.0362
19	MIN	-9.8000	3.2437
20	CIN	-10.9130	3.2766
21	CAR	-14.6770	3.3878
22	TEN	-15.4460	3.4105
23	SF	-16.5660	3.4436
24	NYJ	-18.4620	3.4996
25	DET	-20.3950	3.5567
26	CLE	-20.7660	3.5676
27	CHI	-28.6420	3.8003
28	NYG	-32.6670	3.9192
29	DAL	-34.6430	3.9776
30	OAK	-39.3210	4.1158
31	ARI	-44.0790	4.2563
32	STL	-54.7110	4.5704

Int. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9542%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	77.0410	5.2301
2	SD	64.4420	4.8579
3	MIA	42.6220	4.2133
4	OAK	38.6820	4.0969
5	JAX	24.1230	3.6668
6	CIN	23.5320	3.6493
7	TEN	16.2010	3.4328
8	NE	14.6670	3.3875
9	STL	14.4170	3.3801
10	NYJ	11.1960	3.2849
11	TB	10.6050	3.2675
12	BAL	6.5479	3.1476
13	DAL	4.6486	3.0915
14	GB	1.5599	3.0003
15	BUF	-0.2773	2.9460
16	NO	-0.8997	2.9276
17	ATL	-4.0354	2.8350
18	SEA	-5.6173	2.7882
19	CLE	-7.0863	2.7448
20	KC	-9.5511	2.6720
21	CHI	-12.0310	2.5988
22	ARI	-14.2740	2.5325
23	DEN	-15.6750	2.4911
24	CAR	-16.4170	2.4692
25	DET	-20.2280	2.3566
26	NYG	-23.7280	2.2532
27	MIN	-25.3470	2.2054
28	SF	-26.0070	2.1859
29	PIT	-29.8090	2.0736
30	WAS	-31.7800	2.0153
31	PHI	-34.0030	1.9497
32	HOU	-41.7850	1.7198

Fum. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0952%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	48.3810	1.5977
2	IND	42.8190	1.7699
3	ATL	39.3370	1.8777
4	JAX	33.2170	2.0671
5	SD	31.4730	2.1211
6	TB	24.3030	2.3430
7	DAL	24.2350	2.3451
8	KC	17.6960	2.5475
9	PHI	14.9240	2.6333
10	NYJ	13.2060	2.6865
11	SEA	12.3770	2.7121
12	GB	11.6600	2.7343
13	BUF	8.1342	2.8435
14	PIT	3.2121	2.9958
15	NO	2.6608	3.0129
16	CIN	2.1269	3.0294
17	CLE	-2.3837	3.1690
18	CAR	-3.6561	3.2084
19	STL	-6.8566	3.3075
20	NYG	-7.4060	3.3245
21	HOU	-8.4926	3.3581
22	MIN	-11.1810	3.4413
23	ARI	-16.8300	3.6162
24	BAL	-17.8570	3.6480
25	DEN	-18.3810	3.6642
26	CHI	-19.6080	3.7022
27	MIA	-19.9130	3.7116
28	TEN	-22.9410	3.8053
29	DET	-35.2250	4.1855
30	WAS	-35.3700	4.1900
31	SF	-56.4230	4.8417
32	OAK	-58.6480	4.9105

Fum. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0952%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	CAR	29.0930	3.9957
2	TB	28.4910	3.9771
3	DET	26.7300	3.9226
4	PIT	24.0290	3.8390
5	NE	22.9960	3.8070
6	DEN	22.6770	3.7971
7	BUF	20.3200	3.7242
8	SEA	19.0370	3.6845
9	TEN	18.2080	3.6588
10	MIN	17.7680	3.6452
11	CHI	15.5930	3.5779
12	NO	15.1160	3.5631
13	DAL	14.6790	3.5496
14	HOU	11.0630	3.4377
15	WAS	9.4495	3.3877
16	IND	6.6751	3.3018
17	CIN	0.4071	3.1078
18	SD	-0.6164	3.0762
19	STL	-0.9138	3.0670
20	NYG	-2.1591	3.0284
21	MIA	-8.0249	2.8468
22	ARI	-9.0641	2.8147
23	ATL	-12.2910	2.7148
24	OAK	-18.0700	2.5359
25	JAX	-21.1030	2.4421
26	KC	-22.1160	2.4107
27	CLE	-26.0180	2.2899
28	SF	-31.0610	2.1338
29	GB	-33.0990	2.0707
30	PHI	-36.9430	1.9518
31	NYJ	-39.3500	1.8773
32	BAL	-45.6810	1.6813

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