Monday, December 31, 2007

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 17

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump.

Now that the 2007 regular season has drawn to a close, we can now take a look at teams expected to improve/decline in 2008 based on these numbers. (after the jump)



















Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
NYGNE65.5888-3
ATLSEA90.60243
BALPIT58.49966
DENMIN72.12443
NYJKC87.63253
OAKSD32.9214-13
WASDAL98.493021
INDTEN6.8479-6
TBCAR58.6529-8
CHINO58.79318
MIACIN7.4240-13
CLESF91.107513
GBDET96.808021
HOUJAX37.479714
PHIBUF67.14978
ARISTL98.851729


Teams that "should have" won but didn't
New York Giants (vs. Patriots), Win Prob = 65.5888% The Giants averaged 4.2 yards per carry. The Patriots averaged 1.7 ypc. The Giants averaged 7.2 yards per pass. The Patriots averaged 5.7 ypp.
Tampa Bay Bucs (vs. Panthers), Win Prob = 58.6529% Carolina had two fumbles, only one of which was lost.
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Texans), Win Prob = 62.5203% Jacksonville averaged 7.0 yards per pass versus 6.3 for the Texans, and they were better on third down. Houston also threw one pick against one Jags fumble. Houston also ran only 19 pass plays, inflating the interception and sack rates.



















































TeamActual WinsExpected WinsProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF7.06.01306.0130
MIA1.04.88024.8802
NE16.013.034413.0344
NYJ4.05.64395.6439
AFC North
BAL5.05.91295.9129
CIN7.08.20688.2068
CLE10.08.71188.7118
PIT10.010.358810.3588
AFC South
HOU8.07.11007.1100
IND13.012.871612.8716
JAX11.010.901810.9018
TEN10.08.63338.6333
AFC West
DEN7.07.45147.4514
KC4.06.54036.5403
OAK4.04.89544.8954
SD11.09.40469.4046
NFC East
DAL13.010.956310.9563
NYG10.08.21728.2172
PHI8.09.36349.3634
WAS9.08.74418.7441
NFC North
CHI7.05.12875.1287
DET7.06.81916.8191
GB13.010.634310.6343
MIN8.08.52828.5282
NFC South
ATL4.07.10517.1051
CAR7.06.58536.5853
NO7.07.47867.4786
TB9.010.866610.8666
NFC West
ARI8.06.80216.8021
STL3.05.30375.3037
SF5.02.65552.6555
SEA10.010.241810.2418



The average margin of error was 1.3611 games.

Teams that won >1.3611 more games than their expected win total are expected to decline in 2008. Those teams are:

  • New England Patriots (16 actual vs. 13.0344 expected)
  • Tennessee Titans (10 vs. 8.633)
  • San Diego Chargers (11 vs. 9.4046)
  • Dallas Cowboys (13 vs. 10.9563)
  • New York Giants (10 vs. 8.2172)
  • Chicago Bears (7 vs. 5.1287)
  • Green Bay Packers (13 vs. 10.6343)
  • San Francisco 49ers (5 vs. 2.6555)


Teams that won >1.3611 fewer games than their expected win total are expected to improve in 2008. Those teams are:

  • Miami Dolphins (1 actual vs. 4.8802 expected)
  • New York Jets (4 vs. 5.6439)
  • Kansas City Chiefs (4 vs. 6.5043)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (8 vs. 9.3634)
  • Atlanta Falcons (4 vs. 7.1051)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9 vs. 10.8666)
  • St. Louis Rams (3 vs. 5.3037)

Read More......

Posted by Derek at 9:26 AM 2 comments

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Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Predictions 2007 Week 17 and Accuracy Report




















Predictions based on unadjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
CIN @ MIA-0.117650.1338
KC @ NYJ3.067461.8436
PIT @ BAL-2.806442.2222
SF @ CLE7.636873.4936
JAX @ HOU-0.554747.5887
TEN @ IND8.826177.2495
MIN @ DEN0.852948.2096
SD @ OAK-1.698440.4813
NE @ NYG-2.116042.3982
BUF @ PHI6.513870.5099
DAL @ WAS-1.107746.4259
NO @ CHI-0.146949.6856
DET @ GB7.334970.3761
SEA @ ATL-1.490345.5305
CAR @ TB7.564675.4810
STL @ ARI4.759167.1907




OPPONENT-ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 67.7885%
Mean absolute error: 11.4810 points
Correlation with result: 0.4188
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.5962%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 66.8269%
Correlation with result: 0.4086
% of games predicted as home team wins: 74.5192%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 76.1905
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 65.5172
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 49.0196
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 73.2143
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 67.5676
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 90.9091

UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.8654%
Mean absolute error: 11.5186 points
Correlation with result: 0.3987
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.6346%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 64.4231%
Correlation with result: 0.3894
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.1154%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 70.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 47.6190
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 64.9123
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 78.3784
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 69.2308
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000

Read More......

Posted by Derek at 1:12 PM 0 comments

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Power Rankings 2007 Week 16

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).





































Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE10.9184
2IND10.6703
3DAL10.4441
4TB9.8023
5JAX9.6747
6PIT9.4925
7MIN9.1715
8PHI9.1059
9GB9.0902
10SD8.9651
11WAS8.8545
12SEA8.4820
13NYG8.3811
14TEN8.1760
15DEN7.9775
16HOU7.8321
17CLE7.6168
18CIN7.4845
19NO7.3679
20DET7.3406
21CAR7.3120
22BUF7.2980
23ARI7.1704
24ATL7.0634
25BAL6.9607
26STL6.5877
27CHI6.5075
28KC6.4352
29NYJ6.3864
30MIA6.2834
31SF5.7132
32OAK5.4341





































Power Rankings, Unadjusted
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE10.9108
2IND10.4595
3DAL10.3775
4TB9.9997
5MIN9.8078
6PIT9.7576
7JAX9.6016
8GB9.3454
9SEA8.9187
10SD8.8611
11PHI8.7189
12WAS8.5318
13NYG8.4430
14DEN8.2738
15TEN8.2570
16CLE8.0482
17CIN7.8102
18HOU7.6528
19ARI7.6204
20NO7.2802
21DET7.2723
22CAR7.0987
23BAL7.0671
24BUF6.9034
25ATL6.8773
26STL6.6190
27NYJ6.2978
28KC6.2621
29CHI5.9982
30MIA5.9183
31SF5.6119
32OAK5.3978


Read More......

Posted by Derek at 1:12 PM 0 comments

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Stats (Raw and VOLA) 2007 Week 16

This is the data I use to make my predictions and power rankings. Below are the tables for the raw stats and the values over league average for all of the inputs I use. Rush and pass stats are yards per play. See for yourself where your team's strengths and weaknesses are.






































Rush offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0623)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1MIN29.49905.2607
2PHI16.65204.7388
3NYG13.54204.6125
4JAX12.84104.5840
5DEN11.99804.5497
6DAL6.93684.3441
7PIT6.18624.3136
8CLE6.16184.3127
9NE4.54704.2471
10SD4.51054.2456
11TB2.71364.1726
12OAK1.76134.1339
13SF0.90484.0991
14MIA-0.92934.0246
15DET-1.13634.0162
16TEN-1.77893.9901
17BAL-1.95913.9828
18BUF-2.12363.9761
19CAR-2.24823.9710
20GB-2.94133.9429
21ATL-3.47083.9213
22STL-5.93973.8211
23IND-6.27723.8073
24CIN-7.12363.7730
25WAS-7.23583.7684
26NYJ-7.79623.7456
27HOU-8.99023.6971
28NO-9.78443.6649
29SEA-9.92523.6591
30ARI-11.64703.5892
31KC-19.40703.2740
32CHI-23.29903.1159




































Rush defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0623)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1BAL29.04002.8826
2MIN26.56902.9830
3SF8.84593.7030
4TB8.73653.7074
5CAR8.25323.7271
6PHI7.77173.7466
7SEA4.79183.8677
8WAS4.67723.8723
9IND4.32253.8867
10ARI3.59143.9164
11PIT3.52853.9190
12GB3.52083.9193
13NYG2.88443.9452
14TEN2.28683.9694
15DAL0.81704.0292
16JAX0.77194.0310
17NO-0.14524.0682
18DET-1.70754.1317
19SD-1.77304.1344
20STL-2.38974.1594
21ATL-2.74174.1737
22NYJ-3.95214.2229
23CIN-4.90974.2618
24CHI-6.19704.3141
25KC-6.70844.3349
26NE-7.94994.3853
27HOU-8.02454.3883
28BUF-8.79744.4197
29DEN-9.57914.4515
30CLE-10.66104.4954
31MIA-12.62004.5750
32OAK-20.31004.8874




































Pass offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0589)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE28.32007.7748
2DAL23.69007.4943
3GB20.63707.3093
4IND20.49607.3008
5HOU12.64706.8252
6JAX9.76606.6507
7NO9.30526.6227
8CIN8.90056.5982
9DEN8.62526.5815
10CLE8.51126.5746
11ARI7.65206.5226
12TB5.60906.3988
13SEA4.19396.3130
14PIT2.73096.2244
15WAS1.51256.1506
16SD1.50126.1499
17DET1.40106.1438
18MIN-2.07305.9333
19PHI-2.47835.9088
20BUF-6.39945.6712
21TEN-6.60505.6587
22CHI-7.92205.5789
23NYG-10.51305.4220
24STL-10.67805.4120
25NYJ-11.41105.3676
26ATL-11.62005.3549
27OAK-12.57605.2970
28KC-12.85305.2802
29BAL-16.13805.0811
30MIA-16.73405.0450
31CAR-18.18504.9571
32SF-31.38904.1571




































Pass defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0589)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1IND16.27505.0728
2PIT15.58005.1150
3TB14.95905.1526
4NE14.23805.1963
5DAL11.32605.3727
6TEN11.29505.3746
7WAS10.42705.4272
8SEA7.72725.5908
9NYG7.12705.6271
10SD5.75965.7100
11JAX3.08725.8719
12GB1.06805.9942
13PHI-0.02116.0602
14CAR-0.93406.1155
15KC-1.34996.1407
16MIN-2.30266.1985
17ARI-2.39736.2042
18CLE-2.84706.2314
19SF-3.90296.2954
20HOU-4.12926.3091
21BUF-5.33346.3821
22DEN-5.96136.4201
23DET-6.63236.4608
24STL-6.79796.4708
25ATL-7.00506.4834
26MIA-7.68606.5246
27CHI-7.93146.5395
28NYJ-8.62466.5815
29CIN-9.26716.6204
30BAL-11.80806.7744
31OAK-15.91807.0234
32NO-17.50907.1198




































Sack rate made, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0763%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NYG58.06509.6045
2NE40.19208.5185
3CHI23.66807.5144
4MIA21.60607.3892
5SEA21.17607.3630
6DAL19.33707.2513
7KC19.30707.2495
8SD11.27806.7616
9GB10.77106.7308
10BAL10.38506.7073
11PHI8.11416.5693
12DEN8.03526.5646
13TEN7.58356.5371
14PIT7.19366.5134
15JAX5.42086.4057
16TB2.44546.2249
17OAK0.20886.0890
18DET-3.19205.8824
19STL-3.94535.8366
20ARI-5.21945.7592
21NYJ-5.75085.7269
22NO-6.13675.7034
23SF-9.40905.5046
24IND-10.05105.4656
25HOU-11.12405.4004
26MIN-13.24805.2713
27WAS-18.25804.9669
28ATL-32.36704.1096
29CIN-33.41004.0462
30CLE-34.62503.9724
31BUF-36.81803.8391
32CAR-40.77803.5985




































Sack rate allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0763%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NO67.46501.9769
2CIN50.04003.0357
3GB47.93803.1634
4CLE41.66203.5448
5NE41.64103.5461
6HOU35.03703.9474
7IND35.03703.9474
8ARI31.42804.1666
9DAL25.19404.5454
10WAS20.57304.8262
11SD18.94704.9250
12NYG17.40705.0186
13SEA8.41125.5652
14BUF2.97255.8957
15DEN-0.23156.0904
16JAX-0.61276.1135
17CAR-2.65806.2378
18TEN-3.08076.2635
19TB-6.60646.4777
20BAL-7.39376.5256
21MIA-15.64607.0270
22CHI-18.37807.1930
23ATL-26.59507.6923
24PHI-27.46707.7453
25MIN-28.63207.8161
26STL-30.38407.9225
27OAK-36.54608.2970
28DET-42.01808.6294
29KC-46.99208.9317
30SF-49.05909.0573
31NYJ-53.52009.3283
32PIT-68.518010.2397




































Third down % converted, Unadjusted (League Avg = 39.5811%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1IND25.662049.7384
2NE22.065048.3146
3NO21.270048.0000
4PIT19.105047.1430
5CIN16.115045.9596
6JAX13.508044.9277
7DAL12.884044.6807
8HOU11.219044.0217
9PHI7.608542.5926
10GB6.732842.2460
11CLE5.603441.7990
12DEN4.590041.3978
13NYG3.244840.8654
14SD1.812640.2985
15TEN1.308640.0990
16WAS-0.617939.3365
17NYJ-1.347739.0476
18TB-1.958338.8060
19BAL-6.126937.1560
20MIA-6.336137.0732
21STL-6.604836.9668
22OAK-7.597136.5741
23ATL-9.047436.0000
24SEA-10.757035.3233
25CAR-10.831035.2940
26KC-11.106035.1852
27ARI-11.375035.0787
28BUF-13.024034.4260
29CHI-15.409033.4820
30MIN-15.785033.3332
31DET-17.710032.5713
32SF-20.282031.5532




































Third down % allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 39.5811%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE18.639032.2036
2KC17.989032.4608
3GB16.653032.9896
4CHI15.382033.4927
5NYG14.509033.8383
6BAL7.914136.4486
7ATL7.662436.5482
8SEA7.401236.6516
9CLE5.729137.3134
10DAL4.472237.8109
11WAS4.337937.8641
12PHI3.111538.3495
13STL2.724538.5027
14JAX1.310139.0625
15PIT0.972939.1960
16SF-0.611239.8230
17TB-1.058440.0000
18OAK-1.314940.1015
19SD-1.566240.2010
20HOU-3.231740.8602
21MIN-3.562140.9910
22NO-5.269241.6667
23TEN-6.621342.2019
24DEN-6.644642.2111
25ARI-7.220542.4390
26CAR-8.614242.9907
27CIN-8.852843.0851
28NYJ-11.423044.1024
29IND-12.578044.5596
30DET-14.262045.2261
31BUF-14.948045.4976
32MIA-18.667046.9697




































Int. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0205%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1TB53.08701.4170
2NE47.16901.5958
3JAX42.17101.7467
4SEA30.90702.0869
5WAS29.69502.1236
6PHI20.22402.4096
7GB18.54102.4605
8BAL18.25402.4691
9PIT13.44502.6144
10ATL13.18002.6224
11IND12.87602.6316
12NO12.73202.6359
13MIA4.55582.8829
14DEN2.43452.9470
15CAR-3.25843.1189
16BUF-5.10233.1746
17MIN-6.55193.2184
18SF-10.15303.3272
19CIN-12.32803.3929
20DAL-12.86503.4091
21SD-13.42903.4261
22KC-15.96203.5026
23CHI-16.16603.5088
24NYG-16.92103.5316
25NYJ-17.35803.5448
26CLE-17.35803.5448
27DET-17.64003.5533
28TEN-21.56003.6717
29HOU-24.46303.7594
30ARI-26.45103.8194
31OAK-37.34404.1485
32STL-45.71804.4014




































Int. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0205%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1SD70.83805.1601
2IND47.44104.4534
3OAK39.56204.2155
4TEN28.68503.8869
5CIN21.20203.6609
6SEA13.38103.4247
7JAX11.92803.3808
8NE10.35703.3333
9NYJ9.38513.3040
10GB8.23513.2692
11TB6.36863.2129
12DAL6.07713.2040
13MIA6.00833.2020
14STL3.05753.1128
15BUF2.89263.1079
16DEN1.42253.0635
17BAL0.93663.0488
18KC-1.17252.9851
19CLE-2.79402.9361
20ATL-2.81642.9354
21DET-8.03552.7778
22NYG-12.71202.6365
23MIN-12.74102.6356
24ARI-13.33202.6178
25CHI-17.07202.5048
26CAR-18.48602.4621
27NO-24.47002.2814
28WAS-28.74302.1523
29PIT-30.23402.1073
30HOU-32.18302.0484
31SF-33.17802.0184
32PHI-33.54402.0073




































Fum. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.1305%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1IND47.23401.6518
2NE45.19401.7157
3JAX31.34702.1492
4SD31.02502.1593
5ATL28.91502.2253
6SEA25.32602.3377
7TB23.33502.4000
8PIT20.63602.4845
9CIN20.03502.5033
10DAL19.39802.5232
11PHI12.65302.7344
12NYJ10.19802.8112
13BUF7.54292.8944
14MIN4.38552.9932
15KC3.86233.0096
16NO2.95523.0380
17CLE1.43533.0856
18GB0.03943.1293
19STL-0.21623.1373
20CAR-2.61323.2123
21NYG-5.63473.3069
22HOU-12.38703.5183
23ARI-14.08503.5714
24MIA-14.74103.5920
25TEN-16.23303.6387
26DEN-22.02303.8199
27CHI-24.84803.9083
28BAL-28.94004.0364
29WAS-30.55004.0868
30DET-53.83804.8159
31OAK-61.20405.0465
32SF-68.91005.2877




































Fum. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.1305%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1DET42.47304.4601
2MIN35.84404.2526
3SEA27.43603.9894
4PIT27.38403.9877
5CHI26.95703.9744
6DEN24.94403.9114
7CAR22.54703.8363
8TB22.52503.8356
9NYG12.79603.5311
10WAS11.78203.4993
11TEN10.76303.4674
12BUF10.29203.4527
13NE8.36433.3923
14CIN7.72273.3722
15IND7.48293.3647
16DAL4.06663.2578
17NO1.33933.1724
18STL-0.58053.1123
19SD-0.71483.1081
20HOU-3.20023.0303
21ARI-7.89432.8834
22JAX-13.29502.7143
23MIA-16.81302.6042
24KC-17.08502.5956
25OAK-19.69402.5140
26ATL-21.68602.4516
27GB-24.15502.3743
28CLE-26.84602.2901
29PHI-27.60602.2663
30SF-34.49402.0507
31NYJ-39.57601.8916
32BAL-52.25801.4946




































Rush offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0623)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1MIN26.86005.1535
2PHI17.40504.7694
3NYG13.85104.6250
4JAX10.96904.5079
5DAL9.13324.4334
6DEN7.25254.3570
7CLE6.75494.3367
8SF6.23464.3156
9PIT4.43794.2426
10TB3.90244.2209
11ATL2.48644.1633
12NE2.44474.1617
13SD1.91254.1400
14CAR-0.22634.0531
15DET-0.79034.0302
16STL-1.34234.0078
17GB-1.73443.9919
18OAK-2.50253.9607
19BUF-3.66353.9135
20MIA-3.83923.9064
21SEA-4.41683.8829
22TEN-4.60953.8751
23WAS-5.03143.8579
24BAL-5.13793.8536
25CIN-5.69323.8311
26NO-5.99253.8189
27IND-6.80893.7857
28ARI-7.89413.7417
29NYJ-8.81313.7043
30HOU-11.84603.5811
31CHI-21.28103.1978
32KC-22.80303.1360




































Rush defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0623)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1BAL27.61302.9406
2MIN24.12803.0822
3WAS8.13443.7319
4SF6.94253.7803
5PHI6.28103.8072
6CAR5.95583.8204
7IND5.36163.8445
8TB4.70613.8712
9NYG4.62073.8746
10DAL3.90713.9036
11GB3.34293.9265
12PIT2.86253.9461
13DET1.94003.9835
14SEA1.47924.0023
15TEN1.26344.0110
16CHI1.09554.0178
17ARI0.71154.0334
18SD-0.02634.0634
19JAX-0.97754.1021
20NO-1.32244.1161
21ATL-2.16944.1505
22NYJ-2.21184.1522
23STL-4.20364.2331
24BUF-4.29754.2369
25KC-4.38234.2404
26CIN-6.23744.3157
27HOU-7.70914.3755
28NE-8.42104.4044
29MIA-10.95704.5075
30DEN-12.02704.5509
31CLE-13.56404.6134
32OAK-20.80204.9074




































Pass offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0589)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE30.10507.8830
2DAL23.71307.4957
3IND20.16707.2808
4GB19.00107.2102
5HOU15.04806.9707
6NO11.52406.7572
7JAX10.95406.7226
8CIN10.28506.6821
9DEN8.40166.5680
10ARI7.32726.5029
11CLE6.35006.4437
12WAS3.94196.2978
13TB3.87216.2935
14DET1.46396.1476
15SEA0.50286.0894
16SD0.41566.0841
17PHI0.06686.0630
18PIT-0.71756.0155
19MIN-3.97295.8182
20BUF-5.66925.7154
21CHI-7.20875.6222
22TEN-7.48345.6055
23NYJ-9.38915.4901
24NYG-9.62445.4758
25STL-11.28305.3753
26ATL-12.42805.3059
27OAK-12.98605.2721
28KC-13.69805.2290
29MIA-15.85605.0982
30BAL-16.61405.0523
31CAR-17.58704.9934
32SF-31.77104.1340




































Pass defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0589)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1IND17.33405.0087
2PIT16.32805.0696
3TB14.53705.1782
4TEN13.81205.2221
5NE12.61205.2948
6WAS10.68605.4115
7DAL9.00705.5132
8SD8.88455.5206
9NYG6.36595.6732
10SEA5.16645.7459
11JAX5.09305.7504
12PHI4.30335.7982
13KC2.55565.9041
14CAR1.96215.9401
15BUF-1.38236.1427
16GB-2.19486.1919
17MIA-3.70056.2831
18HOU-4.13596.3095
19CHI-4.42626.3271
20MIN-4.66416.3415
21SF-4.73406.3458
22DEN-5.39706.3859
23CLE-5.79116.4098
24DET-6.61406.4597
25ATL-7.85576.5349
26ARI-8.10936.5503
27STL-8.50436.5742
28NYJ-9.80596.6531
29BAL-10.59606.7009
30OAK-12.20306.7983
31CIN-14.22106.9206
32NO-20.78607.3183




































Sack rate made, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0763%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE42.04508.6311
2NYG38.90708.4404
3KC35.86908.2558
4TB34.43108.1684
5PHI25.60507.6321
6MIA24.67607.5757
7DAL23.32107.4934
8BAL20.64807.3309
9PIT18.87507.2232
10TEN17.55107.1428
11CHI16.66207.0887
12SEA10.21406.6969
13SD8.49216.5923
14IND3.47736.2876
15JAX2.30586.2164
16STL-1.12966.0077
17GB-2.49275.9248
18OAK-4.95975.7749
19HOU-5.43835.7459
20NYJ-9.54625.4963
21DEN-9.73435.4848
22DET-9.87935.4760
23ARI-10.82505.4185
24NO-11.86905.3551
25SF-13.46005.2584
26WAS-19.34504.9008
27MIN-20.40804.8363
28ATL-26.96804.4376
29BUF-37.01003.8275
30CIN-37.82703.7778
31CLE-42.58203.4889
32CAR-43.31803.4442




































Sack rate allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0763%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NO67.41901.9797
2CIN53.30402.8374
3GB49.92603.0427
4NE44.02203.4014
5CLE42.53403.4918
6IND33.56204.0370
7HOU32.86604.0793
8DAL30.56404.2191
9SD26.96704.4377
10WAS24.88704.5641
11ARI23.54004.6459
12BUF18.41204.9575
13NYG13.69605.2441
14DEN0.68056.0350
15SEA-0.44476.1033
16CHI-7.30076.5199
17CAR-7.77766.5489
18JAX-8.83986.6134
19PHI-10.00806.6844
20TEN-12.90206.8603
21MIN-13.10206.8724
22TB-15.46307.0159
23MIA-18.82007.2199
24BAL-20.88607.3454
25STL-30.52907.9313
26OAK-32.37808.0437
27ATL-32.74308.0659
28DET-35.58508.2386
29KC-47.83608.9830
30NYJ-53.31509.3159
31SF-57.89709.5943
32PIT-74.407010.5975




































Third down % converted, Adjusted (League Avg = 39.5811%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1IND26.589050.1053
2NO19.593047.3362
3PIT17.669046.5746
4CIN16.083045.9469
5NE15.933045.8875
6DAL14.931045.4909
7PHI12.588044.5635
8GB10.960043.9192
9JAX10.160043.6025
10HOU9.601443.3814
11NYG4.991141.5566
12SD4.778541.4725
13DEN3.591641.0027
14CLE3.308440.8906
15WAS-0.331939.4497
16NYJ-1.124639.1359
17TEN-1.286439.0719
18MIA-4.015337.9918
19TB-4.418937.8320
20STL-4.593337.7630
21OAK-9.266635.9133
22BAL-9.797735.7030
23SEA-9.926135.6522
24ARI-10.544035.4076
25CAR-10.898035.2675
26MIN-11.330035.0965
27ATL-11.732034.9374
28BUF-12.645034.5760
29CHI-12.788034.5194
30KC-13.437034.2626
31DET-14.297033.9222
32SF-21.037031.2544




































Third down % allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 39.5811%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE20.113031.6201
2KC19.507031.8600
3CHI11.834034.8970
4NYG11.752034.9295
5GB11.542035.0126
6BAL9.332135.8873
7ATL8.794036.1003
8SEA7.347036.6730
9CLE6.221837.1184
10JAX4.520537.7918
11WAS3.723038.1075
12DAL3.668838.1289
13PHI3.268738.2873
14TB1.871438.8404
15STL1.618938.9403
16PIT0.739039.2886
17HOU0.471139.3946
18OAK-0.885439.9315
19SD-1.186040.0505
20TEN-2.046040.3909
21CAR-3.927141.1355
22SF-4.662941.4267
23DEN-6.251442.0554
24NYJ-7.494442.5474
25BUF-7.688942.6244
26MIN-8.484442.9393
27NO-10.242043.6350
28CIN-10.765043.8420
29IND-10.834043.8693
30ARI-11.840044.2675
31MIA-15.867045.8614
32DET-21.573048.1199




































Int. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0205%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE55.96401.3301
2TB51.69301.4591
3JAX41.03901.7809
4IND33.53902.0074
5WAS29.15602.1398
6PHI27.06202.2031
7BAL25.99402.2353
8SEA20.22002.4097
9PIT16.30402.5280
10ATL13.88602.6011
11DEN13.24802.6203
12NO9.95712.7197
13MIA9.07352.7464
14GB8.99262.7489
15HOU3.85502.9040
16SD-1.48263.0653
17BUF-1.74083.0731
18KC-3.44693.1246
19CIN-11.93903.3811
20CAR-13.90003.4403
21CLE-15.52603.4895
22DET-17.27903.5424
23MIN-17.62203.5528
24SF-20.22703.6314
25NYJ-20.27903.6330
26TEN-20.42603.6375
27CHI-23.15603.7199
28DAL-29.92303.9243
29NYG-32.13203.9910
30OAK-40.20704.2349
31ARI-43.84404.3448
32STL-46.96804.4392




































Int. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0205%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1IND81.91605.4948
2SD62.54704.9097
3MIA40.82304.2535
4OAK39.96904.2277
5CIN32.17103.9922
6TEN22.12103.6887
7JAX21.75403.6776
8NYJ17.58303.5516
9NE12.45903.3968
10STL10.99503.3526
11DAL7.09393.2348
12TB6.93373.2299
13SEA-0.00693.0203
14BAL-1.47412.9760
15GB-2.09832.9571
16BUF-2.32852.9502
17NO-3.03452.9288
18CLE-4.41122.8873
19ATL-5.36462.8585
20KC-7.12642.8052
21DEN-11.57802.6708
22ARI-19.63602.4274
23DET-19.65102.4269
24CHI-19.67602.4262
25NYG-20.34302.4060
26MIN-22.32502.3462
27CAR-24.92702.2676
28SF-26.29202.2263
29PIT-28.41802.1621
30PHI-31.46202.0702
31WAS-34.59601.9755
32HOU-39.01601.8420




































Fum. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.1305%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1IND44.83101.7271
2NE44.24901.7453
3ATL38.08101.9384
4SD34.32902.0558
5JAX33.69302.0757
6DAL23.86302.3835
7TB21.63602.4532
8SEA17.72202.5757
9PHI17.34002.5877
10GB13.70302.7015
11KC12.26202.7466
12PIT9.27022.8403
13NYJ6.16562.9375
14BUF4.94402.9757
15NO3.78883.0119
16CIN1.59413.0806
17MIN-3.36053.2357
18CAR-3.96803.2547
19STL-5.15903.2920
20CLE-7.45363.3638
21NYG-7.48813.3649
22CHI-12.17403.5116
23HOU-15.34703.6109
24ARI-18.51803.7102
25DEN-19.09803.7283
26MIA-21.65203.8083
27TEN-22.60303.8381
28BAL-26.11603.9480
29WAS-30.45104.0837
30DET-40.00904.3830
31OAK-53.84804.8162
32SF-57.34804.9258




































Fum. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.1305%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1CAR35.75304.2497
2PIT31.94004.1304
3TB29.13804.0426
4DET28.36904.0186
5NE22.48403.8343
6SEA18.43303.7075
7MIN17.96603.6929
8CHI15.90703.6285
9BUF14.52103.5851
10DEN13.67103.5585
11DAL13.35003.5484
12TEN12.99903.5374
13WAS12.06403.5081
14HOU10.46303.4580
15NO8.10383.3842
16IND6.69013.3399
17NYG4.17023.2610
18STL0.98543.1613
19CIN-1.10423.0959
20SD-4.79602.9803
21ARI-9.56342.8311
22MIA-11.67602.7650
23KC-14.85002.6656
24ATL-16.42602.6163
25JAX-16.52002.6133
26OAK-16.55302.6123
27CLE-26.30302.3071
28GB-27.63002.2655
29SF-27.69502.2635
30PHI-33.30702.0878
31NYJ-38.10501.9376
32BAL-50.16201.5602


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Posted by Derek at 1:12 PM 0 comments

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The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 16

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

All Games
Home Team Win %: 56.6667%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.7000

Interconference
Home Team Win %: 65.0000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 5.6000

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 63.0435%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 3.2935

Intradivsion
Home Team Win %: 44.3182%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 0.1023

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Posted by Derek at 1:09 PM 0 comments

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Monday, December 24, 2007

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 16

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.



















Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
STLPIT22.9134-17
CARDAL48.1312-7
NEMIA91.533621
SFTB22.15272
SEABAL90.516921
TENNYJ70.59034
MINWAS4.5396-11
CHIGB99.704628
CINCLE34.18535
DETKC24.70625
INDHOU98.426423
JAXOAK99.991738
BUFNYG10.6066-17
NOPHI10.2995-15
ARIATL47.06533
SDDEN98.678620


Teams that should have won but didn't
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ 49ers), Win Prob = 77.8473% Though Tampa Bay fumbled three times and gave up 4 sacks, they passed over twice as much as the 49ers and ran 35 more plays, lowering their sack, fumble, and interception rates. They gained 6.6 yards per pass versus 4.5. Each threw a pick, and Tampa Bay was more efficient on third downs.
Cleveland Browns (@ Bengals), Win Prob = 65.8147% Cleveland was slightly more efficient running but less efficient passing. Each team had two fumbles, but Cleveland threw four interceptions versus Cincinnati's two. Again, total number of plays comes into effect, as the Browns ran 49 pass plays while the Bengals ran 21.
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Lions), Win Prob = 75.2938% Kansas City ran 3 times as many pass plays as the Lions, averaging 6.6 yards per pass while the Lions managed only 5.5 ypp. Each team threw a pick, but the Lions' pick carries a much heavier weight because they threw the ball only 16 times.
Atlanta Falcons (@ Cardinals), Win Prob = 52.9437% Atlanta gained 4.4 yards per carry, while Arizona could gain only 2.8 ypc. They were about equal in terms of passing and third downs, and each team had a turnover. Atlanta fared slightly worse in terms of penalties and sack rates. These teams played about equally well, which is indicated by the probability and the result (an overtime win by a field goal).



















































TeamActual WinsExpected WinsProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF7.05.68456.0634
MIA1.04.80605.1264
NE15.012.690313.5363
NYJ3.04.76755.0854
AFC North
BAL4.05.32795.6831
CIN6.07.28117.7665
CLE9.07.80078.3208
PIT10.09.943810.6067
AFC South
HOU7.06.73527.1842
IND13.012.803213.6567
JAX11.010.276610.9617
TEN9.07.70178.2152
AFC West
DEN6.06.73017.1788
KC4.06.41666.8444
OAK4.04.56624.8706
SD10.08.73389.3161
NFC East
DAL13.010.941211.6706
NYG10.07.56138.0654
PHI7.08.69199.2714
WAS8.07.75918.2764
NFC North
CHI6.04.54084.8435
DET7.06.78727.2397
GB12.09.666310.3107
MIN8.08.24948.7994
NFC South
ATL3.06.19916.6124
CAR6.06.17186.5833
NO7.07.06657.5376
TB9.010.280010.9654
NFC West
ARI7.05.81366.2011
STL3.05.29225.6450
SF5.02.56662.7377
SEA10.010.147910.8244


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Posted by Derek at 9:47 AM 0 comments

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Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Predictions 2007 Week 16 and Accuracy Report

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Quick Summary of Accuracy
LAST WEEK
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 11 out of 16
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 11 out of 16
Linear regression, unadjusted: 11 out of 16
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 11 out of 16

YEAR SO FAR
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 67.7083%
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 66.6667%
Linear regression, unadjusted: 65.6250%
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 64.0625%

Full accuracy numbers after the jump...




















Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
NYG @ BUF0.905355.0606
MIA @ NE13.004084.2098
CLE @ CIN2.834358.3370
HOU @ IND9.150378.3015
OAK @ JAX10.611180.2843
NYJ @ TEN7.690074.7585
DEN @ SD5.439866.5751
GB @ CHI-3.806938.3978
KC @ DET4.011765.8262
WAS @ MIN3.129162.7727
DAL @ CAR-3.232838.2353
PHI @ NO0.369050.3606
ATL @ ARI3.246662.6908
PIT @ STL-2.596740.2619
TB @ SF-6.159430.3052
BAL @ SEA4.615867.1546





















Predictions based on unadjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
NYG @ BUF0.434253.2830
MIA @ NE13.045584.5055
CLE @ CIN2.576258.1606
HOU @ IND8.750277.5031
OAK @ JAX9.916278.5033
NYJ @ TEN7.766475.1096
DEN @ SD4.990764.0299
GB @ CHI-4.907033.3815
KC @ DET4.650166.1414
WAS @ MIN4.977868.2217
DAL @ CAR-3.480538.2718
PHI @ NO1.063552.7115
ATL @ ARI4.129866.1845
PIT @ STL-2.910140.0653
TB @ SF-6.527529.6552
BAL @ SEA5.326269.5435



OPPONENT-ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 67.7083%
Mean absolute error: 11.4336 points
Correlation with result: 0.4070
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.3958%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 66.6667%
Correlation with result: 0.3988
% of games predicted as home team wins: 74.4792%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 83.3333
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 64.2857
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 50.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 72.5490
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 65.7143
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 88.8889

UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.6250%
Mean absolute error: 11.4516 points
Correlation with result: 0.3927
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.3542%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 64.0625%
Correlation with result: 0.3861
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.8750%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 75.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 72.2222
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 58.6207
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 48.7179
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 63.4615
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 76.4706
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 66.6667
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000

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Posted by Derek at 5:56 PM 0 comments

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