Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 4 (Updated)

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table to be added after the Monday night game. The first table will be updated as more box scores come in. Updates added

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
ATL	HOU	91.0292	10
BUF	NYJ	58.8856	3
SF	SEA	0.0325	-20
CAR	TB	1.4607	-13
CLE	BAL	80.7689	14
DAL	STL	99.9067	28
DET	CHI	98.3047	10
MIN	GB	55.6513	-7
MIA	OAK	11.8727	-18
ARI	PIT	96.5065	7
IND	DEN	97.4733	18
SD	KC	10.5059	-14
NYG	PHI	98.6507	13
CIN	NE	1.2293	-21

Teams that "should have" won but didn't
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Packers), Win Prob = 55.6513% Green Bay was significantly more efficient in the passing game (7.34 ypa vs. 5.28) but four fumbles and a far lower rushing efficiency (2.3 vs 7) probably led to this estimate.

Team	Actual Wins	Expected Wins	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	1.0	0.6383	2.5531
MIA	0.0	1.4186	5.6745
NE	4.0	3.9638	15.8554
NYJ	1.0	1.3076	5.2305
AFC North
BAL	2.0	1.4951	5.9804
CIN	1.0	1.4667	5.8667
CLE	2.0	1.7553	7.0211
PIT	3.0	2.9541	11.8164
AFC South
HOU	2.0	1.9893	7.9571
IND	4.0	3.4091	13.6364
JAX	2.0	2.0105	10.7225
TEN	2.0	1.5039	8.0207
AFC West
DEN	2.0	2.3205	9.2819
KC	2.0	2.4674	9.8697
OAK	2.0	1.8586	7.4344
SD	1.0	1.2157	4.8630
NFC East
DAL	4.0	3.8310	15.3239
NYG	2.0	1.9770	7.9082
PHI	1.0	1.9772	7.9086
WAS	2.0	1.1278	6.0150
NFC North
CHI	1.0	0.2820	1.1280
DET	3.0	2.7703	11.0812
GB	4.0	2.7166	10.8662
MIN	1.0	1.7895	7.1580
NFC South
ATL	1.0	2.0302	8.1207
CAR	2.0	1.5901	6.3603
NO	0.0	0.1372	0.7319
TB	3.0	3.0588	12.2353
NFC West
ARI	2.0	1.9293	7.7173
STL	0.0	0.9589	3.8354
SF	2.0	0.9905	3.9619
SEA	3.0	3.0592	12.2368

Read More......

Just a quick notice

I've added projections/rankings based on unadjusted or opponent-adjusted stats to some of the articles that went up today. Take a look.

I really should have said what I adjusted the stats for. Sorry bout that.

Read More......

Week 4 Predictions

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
NYJ @ BUF	3.5105	65.9978
OAK @ MIA	6.3238	70.3696
NE @ CIN	-2.1512	38.6068
BAL @ CLE	0.7265	52.6149
DEN @ IND	5.4875	66.5365
KC @ SD	3.5646	60.7375
STL @ DAL	9.4807	80.1174
PHI @ NYG	-0.2369	46.0162
CHI @ DET	6.8736	71.3616
GB @ MIN	3.7115	67.9140
HOU @ ATL	-1.5299	42.1268
TB @ CAR	-0.0658	51.4045
PIT @ ARI	0.6892	55.9588
SEA @ SF	-2.9283	41.3111

Week 3 accuracy numbers delayed until probably Sunday...

Addition: Here are predictions based on unadjusted stats for those who are curious

Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
NYJ @ BUF	-1.3711	49.0697
OAK @ MIA	8.4371	74.1058
NE @ CIN	-8.8399	19.1132
BAL @ CLE	-0.1389	48.9705
DEN @ IND	4.6651	63.2223
KC @ SD	1.0107	53.3276
STL @ DAL	13.2138	86.9832
PHI @ NYG	-2.8726	38.2994
CHI @ DET	8.7209	73.7411
GB @ MIN	4.0232	69.0136
HOU @ ATL	-0.2758	46.5515
TB @ CAR	-3.5788	39.4783
PIT @ ARI	-4.7724	37.5988
SEA @ SF	-3.2617	40.1031

Read More......

Stats (Raw and VOLA), Week 3

This is something additional I'll try posting every week. This is the data I use to make my predictions and power rankings. Below are the tables for the raw stats and the values over league average for all of the inputs I use. Rush and pass stats are yards per play. See for yourself where your team's strengths and weaknesses are. If third down conversion rates correlate with third down DVOA at all, then that might be good news for the 2008 Dolphins who are 12th in pass offense but bottom of the barrel in third down conversion rate. (Football Outsiders says that teams that perform significantly worse on 3rd down than 1st and 2nd will improve the following year because the 3rd down performance will regress to the mean.)


Unadjusted

Rush offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0552)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	CLE	36.5780	5.5385
2	PIT	35.8580	5.5093
3	OAK	19.0650	4.8283
4	DAL	18.9640	4.8242
5	PHI	15.8720	4.6988
6	CAR	14.4540	4.6413
7	NYG	13.8710	4.6176
8	ARI	11.9180	4.5385
9	DEN	11.8100	4.5341
10	TEN	9.8106	4.4530
11	MIN	6.6751	4.3258
12	BUF	6.5310	4.3200
13	NE	4.8624	4.2523
14	IND	3.8801	4.2125
15	TB	1.7578	4.1264
16	SEA	-1.0631	4.0120
17	WAS	-1.6043	3.9901
18	BAL	-1.9143	3.9775
19	SF	-6.8402	3.7778
20	DET	-7.2968	3.7593
21	JAX	-7.5874	3.7475
22	ATL	-7.8677	3.7361
23	MIA	-7.9105	3.7344
24	NO	-13.3270	3.5147
25	STL	-13.6900	3.5000
26	CIN	-13.8460	3.4937
27	CHI	-17.1680	3.3590
28	NYJ	-20.7360	3.2143
29	HOU	-21.3230	3.1905
30	GB	-28.5280	2.8983
31	KC	-34.2400	2.6667
32	SD	-40.6990	2.4047

Rush defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0552)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	37.7340	2.5250
2	BAL	28.7170	2.8906
3	CHI	19.3470	3.2706
4	TEN	17.6530	3.3393
5	NE	17.0530	3.3636
6	PHI	14.4860	3.4677
7	NYG	11.9700	3.5698
8	HOU	11.3780	3.5938
9	NO	9.4071	3.6737
10	GB	8.7919	3.6986
11	IND	8.0856	3.7273
12	SD	7.6120	3.7465
13	CAR	7.2007	3.7632
14	KC	6.0705	3.8090
15	NYJ	4.5082	3.8723
16	SEA	4.4817	3.8734
17	DAL	2.8547	3.9394
18	WAS	2.7693	3.9429
19	TB	1.8848	3.9787
20	PIT	1.7712	3.9833
21	ARI	-1.5601	4.1184
22	DET	-6.3118	4.3111
23	MIA	-6.7883	4.3304
24	ATL	-8.5547	4.4021
25	JAX	-10.1660	4.4674
26	SF	-12.0190	4.5425
27	DEN	-13.7100	4.6111
28	STL	-14.9960	4.6633
29	OAK	-19.1900	4.8333
30	CLE	-19.6800	4.8532
31	BUF	-27.3700	5.1651
32	CIN	-34.0890	5.4375

Pass offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.3127)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	51.1000	9.5385
2	DAL	40.0150	8.8387
3	IND	30.6890	8.2500
4	DEN	24.3290	7.8485
5	TB	21.8710	7.6933
6	HOU	16.4680	7.3523
7	SEA	11.8200	7.0588
8	JAX	11.4540	7.0357
9	CIN	10.8880	7.0000
10	PHI	8.7662	6.8661
11	DET	7.2640	6.7712
12	PIT	5.6074	6.6667
13	MIA	5.4299	6.6555
14	ARI	3.9295	6.5607
15	CAR	1.8121	6.4271
16	CLE	0.1434	6.3217
17	ATL	-1.2091	6.2364
18	GB	-1.9531	6.1894
19	WAS	-2.7932	6.1364
20	NYG	-3.1791	6.1120
21	OAK	-5.9865	5.9348
22	SD	-6.4478	5.9057
23	TEN	-11.2060	5.6053
24	KC	-13.1850	5.4804
25	BAL	-13.5450	5.4576
26	NYJ	-18.1010	5.1700
27	STL	-18.4930	5.1453
28	MIN	-20.4640	5.0209
29	NO	-23.2770	4.8433
30	SF	-31.6420	4.3152
31	CHI	-33.1150	4.2222
32	BUF	-41.7050	3.6800

Pass defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.3127)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DEN	37.3450	3.9552
2	NE	31.2980	4.3369
3	PIT	28.8590	4.4909
4	KC	22.1280	4.9158
5	WAS	18.6740	5.1339
6	IND	15.9540	5.3056
7	TB	10.8740	5.6262
8	ARI	10.6110	5.6428
9	MIN	9.7799	5.6953
10	PHI	7.0091	5.8702
11	SF	6.8931	5.8775
12	TEN	6.7712	5.8852
13	MIA	3.6860	6.0800
14	DAL	3.2791	6.1057
15	GB	2.4521	6.1579
16	STL	2.2760	6.1690
17	BAL	0.9586	6.2522
18	HOU	-0.0870	6.3182
19	JAX	-0.8476	6.3662
20	CAR	-1.0554	6.3793
21	CHI	-1.2959	6.3945
22	CIN	-7.4138	6.7807
23	OAK	-9.6034	6.9189
24	SEA	-10.2170	6.9577
25	SD	-11.7840	7.0566
26	ATL	-13.5620	7.1688
27	CLE	-17.3470	7.4078
28	DET	-19.3080	7.5315
29	NYJ	-25.7780	7.9400
30	NYG	-26.5700	7.9900
31	BUF	-27.1810	8.0285
32	NO	-57.7510	9.9583

Sack rate made, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.4048%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	JAX	119.9000	14.0842
2	DEN	109.7300	13.4329
3	PIT	70.3260	10.9091
4	NE	69.7090	10.8696
5	PHI	66.8590	10.6870
6	KC	64.3500	10.5263
7	SF	43.3870	9.1837
8	CHI	43.2400	9.1743
9	ATL	41.9380	9.0909
10	MIN	34.1760	8.5937
11	DET	12.5280	7.2072
12	ARI	11.5230	7.1429
13	STL	9.9522	7.0423
14	SD	3.1061	6.6038
15	IND	1.1967	6.4815
16	HOU	-0.6432	6.3636
17	SEA	-7.3793	5.9322
18	WAS	-13.9430	5.5118
19	MIA	-16.7300	5.3333
20	BAL	-18.5400	5.2174
21	TB	-21.1450	5.0505
22	DAL	-23.8380	4.8780
23	OAK	-29.6700	4.5045
24	GB	-31.5210	4.3860
25	TEN	-36.0110	4.0984
26	NYG	-37.5470	4.0000
27	CLE	-39.3660	3.8835
28	CIN	-45.2170	3.5088
29	BUF	-55.3910	2.8571
30	CAR	-73.0810	1.7241
31	NYJ	-84.3870	1.0000
32	NO	-100.0000	0.0000

Sack rate allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.4048%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	ARI	70.8160	1.8692
2	IND	54.9620	2.8846
3	NO	53.3930	2.9851
4	CIN	51.5870	3.1008
5	NE	48.5280	3.2967
6	NYG	37.5470	4.0000
7	DEN	36.9160	4.0404
8	MIA	34.3980	4.2017
9	SEA	23.4650	4.9019
10	PIT	22.8980	4.9383
11	BAL	20.6110	5.0847
12	GB	17.2030	5.3030
13	DAL	16.0580	5.3763
14	HOU	11.2890	5.6818
15	WAS	11.2890	5.6818
16	CLE	4.9631	6.0870
17	PHI	2.4175	6.2500
18	CAR	2.4175	6.2500
19	TEN	-2.7185	6.5789
20	STL	-6.7570	6.8376
21	MIN	-13.8460	7.2916
22	SD	-17.8360	7.5472
23	KC	-22.4570	7.8432
24	TB	-24.9060	8.0000
25	CHI	-41.9380	9.0909
26	OAK	-52.7380	9.7826
27	SF	-52.7380	9.7826
28	DET	-53.0710	9.8039
29	NYJ	-56.1320	10.0000
30	BUF	-66.5410	10.6667
31	JAX	-67.2840	10.7143
32	ATL	-98.7140	12.7273

Third down % converted, Unadjusted (League Avg = 42.0267%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	PIT	32.1910	55.5555
2	HOU	22.0230	51.2823
3	NYG	18.9720	50.0000
4	ATL	16.2050	48.8371
5	TEN	15.7570	48.6489
6	NE	14.5660	48.1483
7	NYJ	13.3070	47.6192
8	NO	11.0400	46.6665
9	IND	9.3256	45.9460
10	CIN	7.6413	45.2381
11	BAL	6.8320	44.8980
12	DEN	6.4486	44.7368
13	OAK	5.7529	44.4445
14	WAS	5.7529	44.4445
15	CLE	4.4632	43.9024
16	SD	3.7191	43.5897
17	JAX	1.9760	42.8572
18	GB	1.1262	42.5000
19	SEA	-0.8567	41.6667
20	CAR	-4.8224	40.0000
21	DAL	-6.0748	39.4737
22	TB	-6.2645	39.3939
23	MIA	-9.0214	38.2353
24	PHI	-15.0200	35.7143
25	MIN	-15.0200	35.7143
26	STL	-15.0200	35.7143
27	DET	-16.7200	34.9998
28	ARI	-16.7200	34.9998
29	BUF	-18.4190	34.2858
30	KC	-20.6850	33.3335
31	CHI	-27.2950	30.5555
32	SF	-34.5650	27.5002

Third down % allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 42.0267%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	STL	27.8960	30.3029
2	ATL	20.6850	33.3335
3	BAL	16.9960	34.8838
4	TB	15.0200	35.7143
5	NE	13.4750	36.3636
6	SD	12.7540	36.6666
7	CIN	12.3360	36.8423
8	CHI	12.0640	36.9566
9	WAS	10.1100	37.7778
10	PIT	9.3547	38.0952
11	KC	9.3547	38.0952
12	PHI	8.8725	38.2979
13	DEN	5.9291	39.5349
14	MIN	2.6593	40.9091
15	NO	-0.9459	42.4242
16	CLE	-2.7485	43.1818
17	GB	-4.4632	43.9024
18	SF	-4.4632	43.9024
19	CAR	-5.1380	44.1860
20	SEA	-5.7529	44.4445
21	NYG	-6.4486	44.7368
22	IND	-7.0748	45.0000
23	OAK	-8.1563	45.4545
24	DET	-9.8203	46.1539
25	NYJ	-12.3620	47.2221
26	TEN	-12.3620	47.2221
27	HOU	-12.7100	47.3683
28	DAL	-12.7100	47.3683
29	BUF	-15.9210	48.7178
30	MIA	-16.0700	48.7804
31	JAX	-18.9720	50.0000
32	ARI	-18.9720	50.0000

Int. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.7795%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	JAX	100.0000	0.0000
2	TB	100.0000	0.0000
3	PHI	67.8770	0.8928
4	IND	65.4060	0.9615
5	CAR	62.5230	1.0417
6	SF	60.8930	1.0870
7	NE	60.4630	1.0989
8	PIT	55.5820	1.2346
9	GB	45.4870	1.5152
10	BAL	39.0200	1.6949
11	ATL	34.5850	1.8182
12	SEA	29.4540	1.9608
13	NYJ	28.0430	2.0000
14	DAL	22.6270	2.1505
15	STL	7.7480	2.5641
16	TEN	5.3204	2.6316
17	BUF	4.0580	2.6667
18	ARI	-0.8736	2.8037
19	KC	-5.8184	2.9412
20	CIN	-11.5600	3.1008
21	NYG	-15.1300	3.2000
22	HOU	-22.6530	3.4091
23	WAS	-22.6530	3.4091
24	SD	-35.7670	3.7736
25	DET	-41.0910	3.9216
26	DEN	-45.3670	4.0404
27	MIA	-51.1690	4.2017
28	CLE	-56.4270	4.3478
29	MIN	-87.3870	5.2083
30	NO	-87.9460	5.2239
31	OAK	-95.5340	5.4348
32	CHI	-118.0500	6.0606

Int. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.7795%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DAL	134.0000	6.5039
2	DEN	114.8000	5.9703
3	OAK	94.4770	5.4054
4	DET	94.4770	5.4054
5	CIN	57.7990	4.3860
6	TEN	47.4520	4.0984
7	TB	45.3670	4.0404
8	MIN	40.5400	3.9062
9	IND	33.2530	3.7037
10	NE	17.3200	3.2609
11	KC	13.6160	3.1579
12	JAX	1.3472	2.8169
13	CHI	-0.9773	2.7523
14	PIT	-1.8775	2.7273
15	HOU	-1.8775	2.7273
16	MIA	-4.0580	2.6667
17	GB	-5.3204	2.6316
18	SEA	-8.5298	2.5424
19	PHI	-17.6070	2.2901
20	SF	-26.5750	2.0408
21	NYG	-28.0430	2.0000
22	CLE	-30.1390	1.9418
23	BUF	-31.4700	1.9048
24	SD	-32.1160	1.8868
25	BAL	-37.4290	1.7391
26	WAS	-43.3410	1.5748
27	NO	-50.0300	1.3889
28	ATL	-53.2750	1.2987
29	NYJ	-64.0220	1.0000
30	CAR	-100.0000	0.0000
31	ARI	-100.0000	0.0000
32	STL	-100.0000	0.0000

Fum. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.1713%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	GB	78.4020	0.6849
2	DAL	57.0980	1.3605
3	ARI	55.2720	1.4185
4	PIT	40.1270	1.8987
5	ATL	37.7640	1.9737
6	IND	36.5110	2.0134
7	MIA	31.9430	2.1583
8	BUF	23.0910	2.4390
9	JAX	19.1460	2.5641
10	DEN	18.0960	2.5974
11	PHI	18.0960	2.5974
12	SEA	16.4690	2.6490
13	NYJ	15.3480	2.6846
14	NE	12.4090	2.7778
15	NYG	11.7960	2.7972
16	MIN	11.7960	2.7972
17	TEN	6.1521	2.9762
18	CIN	3.2733	3.0675
19	SD	2.0718	3.1056
20	SF	-1.7190	3.2258
21	HOU	-3.7266	3.2895
22	TB	-15.0840	3.6496
23	CAR	-21.2800	3.8461
24	NO	-22.0630	3.8710
25	WAS	-26.9780	4.0268
26	STL	-26.9780	4.0268
27	KC	-30.4810	4.1379
28	BAL	-31.3870	4.1667
29	DET	-37.9560	4.3750
30	CLE	-73.8030	5.5118
31	CHI	-88.2560	5.9701
32	OAK	-116.7900	6.8750

Fum. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.1713%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DET	67.9270	5.3255
2	HOU	57.6640	5.0000
3	SD	54.3570	4.8951
4	STL	51.1850	4.7945
5	CIN	47.1540	4.6667
6	IND	41.4940	4.4872
7	DAL	36.1130	4.3165
8	PIT	30.3010	4.1322
9	NE	24.1450	3.9370
10	DEN	23.6580	3.9216
11	TB	18.9920	3.7736
12	GB	12.6170	3.5714
13	MIN	11.9510	3.5503
14	CLE	9.9985	3.4884
15	PHI	9.4892	3.4722
16	ARI	5.8151	3.3557
17	CAR	4.4136	3.3113
18	SF	2.3795	3.2468
19	SEA	1.0670	3.2051
20	BAL	-5.1642	3.0075
21	JAX	-10.5450	2.8369
22	NYG	-15.9120	2.6667
23	MIA	-20.6720	2.5157
24	CHI	-22.6190	2.4540
25	TEN	-29.9270	2.2222
26	KC	-36.5110	2.0134
27	NO	-55.2720	1.4185
28	ATL	-57.0980	1.3605
29	WAS	-57.9560	1.3333
30	OAK	-58.2350	1.3245
31	NYJ	-61.3090	1.2270
32	BUF	-63.5460	1.1561

Adjusted

Rush offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0552)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DAL	29.8530	5.2657
2	NYG	19.4700	4.8447
3	IND	18.1230	4.7901
4	PHI	16.7350	4.7338
5	ARI	16.1840	4.7114
6	PIT	14.0730	4.6258
7	ATL	11.8850	4.5371
8	BUF	10.1310	4.4660
9	CLE	9.7204	4.4493
10	TEN	9.0851	4.4236
11	CAR	6.5278	4.3199
12	OAK	4.0796	4.2206
13	MIN	3.8192	4.2100
14	WAS	3.5302	4.1983
15	DET	3.2770	4.1880
16	NE	0.2890	4.0669
17	TB	-1.2119	4.0060
18	MIA	-4.4581	3.8744
19	NO	-6.6129	3.7870
20	DEN	-7.8681	3.7361
21	SEA	-8.3938	3.7148
22	BAL	-8.4569	3.7122
23	SF	-10.7370	3.6198
24	JAX	-11.5470	3.5869
25	NYJ	-11.5850	3.5854
26	CHI	-12.2010	3.5604
27	CIN	-12.7320	3.5389
28	STL	-13.0690	3.5252
29	KC	-14.9450	3.4491
30	HOU	-15.5110	3.4262
31	GB	-19.1080	3.2803
32	SD	-30.0720	2.8357

Rush defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0552)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	25.8230	3.0080
2	BAL	20.8590	3.2093
3	TEN	14.0800	3.4842
4	NO	13.6600	3.5012
5	WAS	10.3930	3.6337
6	NYG	8.5775	3.7073
7	PIT	6.6585	3.7851
8	DET	6.3265	3.7986
9	SEA	5.1407	3.8467
10	PHI	5.1188	3.8476
11	SF	4.1349	3.8875
12	IND	3.4280	3.9161
13	NYJ	3.0102	3.9331
14	HOU	1.4689	3.9956
15	DAL	0.7326	4.0254
16	GB	0.5019	4.0348
17	NE	0.3736	4.0400
18	CHI	-0.4996	4.0754
19	SD	-1.6504	4.1221
20	ATL	-3.0835	4.1802
21	JAX	-3.9588	4.2157
22	ARI	-4.8896	4.2534
23	CLE	-5.6224	4.2832
24	KC	-6.1269	4.3036
25	TB	-8.1597	4.3860
26	DEN	-8.3166	4.3924
27	OAK	-8.3817	4.3950
28	BUF	-9.4532	4.4385
29	MIA	-9.6915	4.4482
30	CAR	-9.6969	4.4484
31	STL	-9.9384	4.4582
32	CIN	-16.4130	4.7207

Pass offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.3127)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	HOU	33.8920	8.4522
2	DAL	28.5590	8.1155
3	JAX	24.2760	7.8452
4	NE	24.2180	7.8415
5	SEA	18.2590	7.4653
6	IND	17.9130	7.4435
7	DET	11.7840	7.0566
8	DEN	10.1650	6.9544
9	PHI	8.4372	6.8453
10	NYG	5.2786	6.6459
11	MIA	4.4770	6.5953
12	SD	4.4338	6.5926
13	CLE	4.1002	6.5715
14	ARI	1.3565	6.3983
15	ATL	0.7003	6.3569
16	CIN	0.2169	6.3264
17	TB	-0.0283	6.3109
18	CAR	-0.1748	6.3017
19	NYJ	-4.9923	5.9975
20	WAS	-5.6432	5.9565
21	PIT	-6.7542	5.8863
22	KC	-10.2400	5.6663
23	GB	-12.1970	5.5427
24	STL	-13.6030	5.4540
25	NO	-13.6900	5.4485
26	OAK	-13.7780	5.4429
27	BUF	-14.2870	5.4108
28	SF	-15.3380	5.3444
29	BAL	-16.5370	5.2688
30	TEN	-18.7130	5.1314
31	MIN	-22.7010	4.8796
32	CHI	-28.2820	4.5273

Pass defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.3127)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DEN	27.7700	4.5597
2	WAS	21.3790	4.9631
3	NE	12.9500	5.4952
4	KC	10.5530	5.6465
5	TEN	9.9993	5.6815
6	PHI	9.1010	5.7382
7	IND	8.8868	5.7517
8	MIN	8.7549	5.7600
9	MIA	8.6043	5.7695
10	HOU	6.5412	5.8998
11	JAX	6.3020	5.9149
12	CHI	4.6443	6.0195
13	PIT	3.2302	6.1088
14	ARI	2.5049	6.1546
15	GB	0.6271	6.2731
16	OAK	0.4479	6.2844
17	SEA	0.2984	6.2938
18	BUF	-0.7494	6.3600
19	STL	-1.3381	6.3972
20	TB	-1.4782	6.4060
21	BAL	-2.1700	6.4497
22	CAR	-2.2782	6.4565
23	SF	-3.3905	6.5267
24	DAL	-6.6954	6.7353
25	CIN	-8.3594	6.8404
26	SD	-8.6000	6.8556
27	NYJ	-11.9130	7.0647
28	CLE	-12.1560	7.0801
29	NYG	-13.0690	7.1377
30	ATL	-16.3790	7.3466
31	DET	-24.6810	7.8707
32	NO	-38.4420	8.7394

Sack rate made, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.4048%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	SF	85.4590	11.8783
2	JAX	55.1410	9.9365
3	KC	43.9700	9.2210
4	PIT	42.2870	9.1132
5	PHI	41.0910	9.0366
6	CHI	34.4500	8.6113
7	DEN	30.8040	8.3778
8	SD	23.9440	7.9384
9	TB	23.6620	7.9203
10	IND	22.1300	7.8222
11	NE	17.9350	7.5535
12	ARI	15.8330	7.4189
13	WAS	14.6460	7.3429
14	ATL	10.8230	7.0980
15	HOU	9.9242	7.0405
16	BAL	9.3478	7.0035
17	SEA	7.6271	6.8933
18	TEN	-0.4098	6.3786
19	DET	-4.4187	6.1218
20	DAL	-14.1460	5.4988
21	MIA	-14.9330	5.4484
22	GB	-18.8600	5.1969
23	MIN	-21.3340	5.0384
24	OAK	-22.2270	4.9812
25	STL	-24.8040	4.8162
26	NYG	-27.3430	4.6536
27	BUF	-28.2540	4.5952
28	CLE	-29.1800	4.5359
29	CIN	-29.7080	4.5021
30	NYJ	-76.2000	1.5244
31	CAR	-80.6190	1.2413
32	NO	-100.0000	0.0000

Sack rate allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.4048%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	ARI	71.9110	1.7991
2	NO	40.7250	3.7965
3	CIN	39.0460	3.9040
4	IND	37.9670	3.9731
5	CLE	32.8700	4.2996
6	GB	29.7620	4.4986
7	NE	28.2570	4.5950
8	HOU	25.8120	4.7516
9	MIN	21.6150	5.0204
10	TEN	20.4140	5.0974
11	NYG	18.0910	5.2461
12	DAL	17.7960	5.2650
13	CAR	16.5180	5.3469
14	DEN	12.6260	5.5962
15	BUF	6.7259	5.9741
16	BAL	4.2373	6.1334
17	SD	0.0943	6.3988
18	KC	-0.3718	6.4286
19	PIT	-1.8861	6.5256
20	PHI	-6.1193	6.7968
21	SEA	-8.4314	6.9449
22	WAS	-10.0650	7.0495
23	DET	-14.4830	7.3324
24	STL	-22.3360	7.8354
25	SF	-27.3190	8.1546
26	TB	-31.3140	8.4104
27	OAK	-33.5900	8.5562
28	CHI	-36.7970	8.7616
29	JAX	-37.0630	8.7787
30	NYJ	-41.4170	9.0575
31	MIA	-48.9800	9.5419
32	ATL	-61.3800	10.3361

Third down % converted, Adjusted (League Avg = 42.0267%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	HOU	23.8850	52.0648
2	PIT	21.6310	51.1175
3	NYJ	19.8410	50.3652
4	NYG	19.0240	50.0219
5	SD	12.9130	47.4536
6	NO	12.3490	47.2166
7	CLE	11.5850	46.8955
8	ATL	9.6151	46.0676
9	JAX	9.1036	45.8527
10	NE	7.7712	45.2927
11	CIN	6.9737	44.9575
12	GB	6.7870	44.8791
13	TEN	6.3278	44.6861
14	CAR	5.6508	44.4016
15	OAK	3.4526	43.4777
16	WAS	3.1452	43.3485
17	SEA	2.1429	42.9273
18	TB	-0.1948	41.9448
19	IND	-0.2549	41.9196
20	DEN	-5.2355	39.8264
21	BAL	-5.3679	39.7708
22	DAL	-9.2492	38.1396
23	BUF	-9.3908	38.0801
24	MIN	-12.3020	36.8566
25	MIA	-12.9180	36.5977
26	ARI	-14.6670	35.8627
27	STL	-15.1640	35.6538
28	PHI	-15.9270	35.3331
29	DET	-16.4440	35.1158
30	KC	-17.7870	34.5514
31	CHI	-26.0770	31.0674
32	SF	-27.4380	30.4954

Third down % allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 42.0267%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	BAL	18.9300	34.0711
2	ATL	16.4650	35.1070
3	TB	16.3270	35.1650
4	CIN	14.7400	35.8320
5	STL	13.5620	36.3270
6	WAS	11.8630	37.0411
7	NE	11.3840	37.2424
8	CLE	10.4490	37.6353
9	KC	8.1710	38.5927
10	IND	7.5099	38.8705
11	PHI	7.3485	38.9384
12	SD	7.2878	38.9639
13	CHI	5.4646	39.7301
14	BUF	5.0029	39.9242
15	DEN	4.8450	39.9905
16	NO	4.0122	40.3405
17	CAR	-1.3621	42.5992
18	MIN	-4.1126	43.7551
19	TEN	-4.3028	43.8350
20	JAX	-4.7290	44.0142
21	NYJ	-5.9052	44.5085
22	SF	-6.6899	44.8383
23	NYG	-6.7570	44.8665
24	GB	-7.0014	44.9692
25	SEA	-7.6370	45.2363
26	MIA	-10.2850	46.3492
27	PIT	-10.5520	46.4614
28	OAK	-10.5670	46.4677
29	HOU	-15.5570	48.5648
30	DET	-19.3590	50.1627
31	DAL	-21.2000	50.9364
32	ARI	-23.8960	52.0694

Int. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.7795%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	JAX	100.0000	0.0000
2	TB	100.0000	0.0000
3	IND	76.5380	0.6521
4	PHI	66.0710	0.9430
5	CAR	61.8060	1.0616
6	BAL	61.3560	1.0741
7	SF	60.1450	1.1078
8	SEA	55.2940	1.2426
9	ATL	53.4550	1.2937
10	NE	41.7580	1.6188
11	BUF	36.7780	1.7572
12	STL	36.5380	1.7639
13	PIT	35.1850	1.8015
14	GB	29.0400	1.9723
15	DAL	7.1685	2.5802
16	OAK	5.1630	2.6360
17	HOU	2.6515	2.7058
18	DET	-2.9194	2.8606
19	KC	-7.5163	2.9884
20	NYJ	-15.0000	3.1964
21	CLE	-15.7680	3.2177
22	DEN	-26.2630	3.5094
23	SD	-27.9870	3.5573
24	ARI	-28.3490	3.5674
25	NO	-31.6040	3.6579
26	WAS	-34.8480	3.7480
27	MIA	-35.7140	3.7721
28	CIN	-40.8270	3.9142
29	TEN	-41.4470	3.9315
30	NYG	-44.3000	4.0108
31	MIN	-57.2920	4.3719
32	CHI	-64.0990	4.5611

Int. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.7795%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	CIN	113.1600	5.9247
2	HOU	49.0910	4.1439
3	GB	48.9040	4.1387
4	TEN	48.0090	4.1138
5	MIN	45.7030	4.0498
6	DAL	43.0490	3.9760
7	DEN	38.3580	3.8456
8	TB	37.5180	3.8223
9	OAK	31.9820	3.6684
10	PIT	25.4550	3.4870
11	NYG	12.5000	3.1269
12	DET	2.3423	2.8446
13	SD	1.4151	2.8188
14	BUF	0.7143	2.7993
15	NE	-1.6304	2.7341
16	CHI	-1.8349	2.7285
17	PHI	-7.7608	2.5637
18	IND	-10.2290	2.4951
19	JAX	-11.6200	2.4565
20	BAL	-13.0430	2.4169
21	SEA	-15.1130	2.3594
22	MIA	-21.7780	2.1741
23	SF	-27.2110	2.0231
24	KC	-34.3860	1.8237
25	CLE	-37.3790	1.7405
26	NO	-47.2220	1.4669
27	WAS	-50.7870	1.3679
28	ATL	-75.0650	0.6931
29	NYJ	-76.2000	0.6615
30	CAR	-100.0000	0.0000
31	ARI	-100.0000	0.0000
32	STL	-100.0000	0.0000

Fum. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.1713%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	GB	80.2740	0.6256
2	ARI	54.5740	1.4406
3	DAL	47.4490	1.6665
4	PIT	44.2190	1.7690
5	ATL	41.7320	1.8478
6	PHI	39.2500	1.9266
7	BUF	38.9430	1.9363
8	SEA	25.4300	2.3648
9	CAR	21.4290	2.4917
10	SF	18.2950	2.5911
11	NYJ	16.9130	2.6349
12	MIA	12.7100	2.7682
13	IND	9.0604	2.8840
14	HOU	3.4712	3.0612
15	CIN	3.3333	3.0656
16	TB	1.2304	3.1323
17	SD	0.4348	3.1575
18	NYG	-7.8089	3.4189
19	JAX	-8.6538	3.4457
20	NO	-9.0783	3.4592
21	TEN	-10.4590	3.5030
22	MIN	-12.3930	3.5643
23	KC	-17.0110	3.7108
24	STL	-20.3360	3.8162
25	DET	-24.4170	3.9456
26	NE	-27.3810	4.0396
27	BAL	-30.0260	4.1235
28	WAS	-48.1880	4.6995
29	CHI	-49.9110	4.7541
30	DEN	-50.9740	4.7878
31	OAK	-60.2430	5.0818
32	CLE	-69.4150	5.3726

Fum. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.1713%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	PHI	66.2530	5.2724
2	HOU	42.9760	4.5342
3	NE	41.6540	4.4923
4	IND	34.6580	4.2704
5	STL	33.4250	4.2313
6	DET	30.9040	4.1513
7	BAL	30.0380	4.1239
8	GB	29.0710	4.0932
9	DAL	28.5370	4.0763
10	SF	28.3550	4.0705
11	SD	22.3780	3.8810
12	CAR	20.1320	3.8097
13	TB	11.8450	3.5469
14	ARI	8.3893	3.4373
15	DEN	6.2983	3.3710
16	CLE	5.5638	3.3477
17	CIN	4.1905	3.3042
18	JAX	2.2695	3.2433
19	MIA	0.8910	3.1995
20	NYG	-1.3333	3.1290
21	MIN	-1.6202	3.1199
22	SEA	-5.5128	2.9965
23	PIT	-6.1393	2.9766
24	TEN	-15.1850	2.6897
25	CHI	-30.8380	2.1933
26	NO	-40.9460	1.8728
27	KC	-44.3620	1.7644
28	WAS	-45.2780	1.7354
29	ATL	-49.1500	1.6126
30	BUF	-56.9360	1.3657
31	OAK	-62.4880	1.1896
32	NYJ	-63.1900	1.1674

Read More......

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 3 (Updated)

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table to be added after the Monday night game. The first table will be updated as more box scores come in. Updates finished.

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
BAL	ARI	80.3608	3
GB	SD	87.8077	7
DEN	JAX	32.4010	-9
WAS	NYG	16.6049	-7
OAK	CLE	92.2392	2
SEA	CIN	66.4904	3
HOU	IND	0.6929	-6
KC	MIN	79.0921	3
NE	BUF	99.8119	31
NYJ	MIA	37.4840	3
PHI	DET	99.7787	35
PIT	SF	94.5128	21
TB	STL	99.0428	21
ATL	CAR	40.0107	-7
CHI	DAL	1.4154	-24
NO	TEN	13.2432	-17

Teams that "should have" won but didn't
Miami Dolphins (@ Jets), Win Prob = 62.5160% So yeah, this post is going up earlier than normal because I'm a bitter Dolfan right now. Blame this one on terrible red zone offense and special teams. Ted Ginn's had TWO punt returns. TWO. I'm glad we spent a #9 pick on someone to call for a fair catch. Meanwhile, Leon Washington gets a 98-yard return. Lots of 2-TE formations and no real noticable attempts to go deep. But this week, dumping off to the running back proved real successful for the Fins. The Dolphins outperformed the Jets in most of the stats used in this system and still lost.

Team	Actual Wins	Expected Wins	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	0.0	0.0494	0.2636
MIA	0.0	1.2999	6.9328
NE	3.0	2.9761	15.8728
NYJ	1.0	0.8965	4.7812
AFC North
BAL	2.0	1.3028	6.9482
CIN	1.0	1.4544	7.7567
CLE	1.0	0.9476	5.0538
PIT	3.0	2.9192	15.5688
AFC South
HOU	2.0	1.8996	10.1311
IND	3.0	2.4344	12.9833
JAX	2.0	2.0105	10.7225
TEN	2.0	1.5039	8.0207
AFC West
DEN	2.0	2.2952	12.2411
KC	1.0	1.5725	8.3866
OAK	1.0	0.9773	5.2125
SD	1.0	1.1107	5.9236
NFC East
DAL	3.0	2.8319	15.1035
NYG	1.0	0.9905	5.2828
PHI	1.0	1.9637	10.4728
WAS	2.0	1.1278	6.0150
NFC North
CHI	1.0	0.2650	1.4135
DET	2.0	1.7873	9.5320
GB	3.0	2.2731	12.1230
MIN	1.0	1.2330	6.5759
NFC South
ATL	0.0	1.1199	5.9727
CAR	2.0	1.5755	8.4025
NO	0.0	0.1372	0.7319
TB	2.0	2.0734	11.0584
NFC West
ARI	1.0	0.9643	5.1427
STL	0.0	0.9579	5.1089
SF	2.0	0.9901	5.2808
SEA	2.0	2.0595	10.9841

Detroit still looks like a 10-win team, eerily matching Kitna's prediction. The small sample size, however, will bring them down immensely in the power rankings going up next. That one game made their pass defense look like one of the worst in the league. This is also why you shouldn't trust averages entirely.

Read More......

Projected Final Standings 2007 Week 3

Using the projected win probabilities from the logistic regression power rankings, I estimated which games each team would win on the rest of their respective schedules. And then I summed the projected wins with the actual wins so far to get their projected win totals. The teams are sorted by division.

Edit: Now projected final standings based on adjusted stats are added.

Projected Final Standings
Team	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	5
MIA	6
NE	14
NYJ	4
AFC North
BAL	7
CIN	7
CLE	6
PIT	11
AFC South
HOU	12
IND	16
JAX	10
TEN	9
AFC West
DEN	13
KC	6
OAK	4
SD	5
NFC East
DAL	15
NYG	6
PHI	12
WAS	7
NFC North
CHI	2
DET	8
GB	11
MIN	8
NFC South
ATL	6
CAR	7
NO	0
TB	9
NFC West
ARI	10
STL	1
SF	6
SEA	13

Projected Final Standings
Team	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	0
MIA	7
NE	16
NYJ	3
AFC North
BAL	9
CIN	7
CLE	6
PIT	14
AFC South
HOU	10
IND	15
JAX	8
TEN	9
AFC West
DEN	14
KC	8
OAK	4
SD	4
NFC East
DAL	15
NYG	7
PHI	10
WAS	7
NFC North
CHI	2
DET	7
GB	11
MIN	10
NFC South
ATL	5
CAR	7
NO	0
TB	14
NFC West
ARI	10
STL	1
SF	4
SEA	12

Read More......

Power Rankings 2007 Week 3

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The first power rankings use linear regression to predict the final score margins of each such game. The score you see along with the rankings is the sum of all of those expected margins.

The second power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

From here on out, the power rankings will be based on the adjusted VOLA (value over league average) stats.

Power Rankings, Linear Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Point Differential
1	IND	5.1372
2	NE	4.6963
3	PHI	4.4882
4	DAL	4.4489
5	HOU	4.2759
6	JAX	2.7364
7	DEN	2.2194
8	PIT	2.0808
9	SEA	1.9967
10	WAS	1.0809
11	NYG	0.9683
12	TB	0.8943
13	TEN	0.3019
14	CAR	-0.0282
15	MIN	-0.3278
16	BAL	-0.3986
17	ARI	-0.4182
18	ATL	-0.4516
19	MIA	-0.4580
20	GB	-0.4797
21	CLE	-1.1080
22	CIN	-1.4180
23	BUF	-1.5398
24	DET	-1.6907
25	SD	-1.7952
26	SF	-2.6270
27	KC	-2.7353
28	NYJ	-2.9009
29	OAK	-2.9807
30	STL	-3.2558
31	CHI	-5.2796
32	NO	-5.4321

Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	IND	10.7001
2	DAL	10.5789
3	PHI	10.4336
4	NE	10.3860
5	HOU	10.1382
6	JAX	9.4433
7	DEN	9.2701
8	SEA	9.1180
9	PIT	8.9880
10	WAS	8.6391
11	NYG	8.4719
12	TB	8.2504
13	TEN	8.1991
14	ARI	8.1641
15	MIN	8.0222
16	MIA	7.9489
17	CAR	7.8971
18	BAL	7.6365
19	GB	7.5572
20	ATL	7.5167
21	DET	7.3864
22	CLE	7.2844
23	BUF	7.1819
24	CIN	6.9683
25	SD	6.7951
26	SF	6.7815
27	KC	6.6613
28	OAK	6.5439
29	NYJ	6.3535
30	STL	6.1707
31	CHI	5.4655
32	NO	5.0481

Adddition: For those who are curious, here are the rankings based on unadjusted stats.

Power Rankings, Linear Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Point Differential
1	NE	11.2720
2	PIT	8.1241
3	DAL	7.4265
4	DEN	7.1949
5	IND	7.0557
6	TB	4.9459
7	PHI	3.8690
8	HOU	1.7319
9	TEN	1.5146
10	MIN	1.2234
11	ARI	0.8836
12	CAR	0.7423
13	BAL	0.6645
14	WAS	0.5989
15	SEA	0.4970
16	JAX	0.1947
17	GB	0.1204
18	MIA	-1.0742
19	CIN	-1.1317
20	NYG	-1.3867
21	ATL	-1.7138
22	CLE	-2.0001
23	DET	-2.0462
24	KC	-2.0476
25	SD	-3.2215
26	STL	-3.4520
27	OAK	-3.6659
28	SF	-4.5673
29	NYJ	-6.0060
30	CHI	-6.0192
31	BUF	-9.7513
32	NO	-9.9761

Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	12.9813
2	PIT	11.6263
3	DAL	11.6066
4	IND	11.3967
5	DEN	11.3499
6	TB	10.4152
7	PHI	10.0796
8	ARI	8.8136
9	MIN	8.7847
10	HOU	8.7794
11	TEN	8.7690
12	CAR	8.5410
13	WAS	8.3187
14	SEA	8.3100
15	BAL	8.2196
16	JAX	8.2002
17	GB	7.9602
18	MIA	7.6812
19	NYG	7.2284
20	CIN	7.1236
21	KC	7.0974
22	DET	7.0924
23	CLE	7.0654
24	ATL	6.7873
25	OAK	6.3478
26	SD	6.1342
27	STL	6.0664
28	SF	5.9218
29	CHI	5.2842
30	NYJ	4.9917
31	BUF	3.6334
32	NO	3.3927

Read More......

The Value of Home Field Advantage, Week 3

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

All Games
Home Team Win %: 62.5000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.7917

Interconference
Home Team Win %: 71.4286%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.5714

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 66.6667%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 6.4667

Intradivsion
Home Team Win %: 52.6316%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 0.0526

Read More......

How to Calculate Probability of Winning Based on In-Game Stats

A reader e-mailed me asking how to calculate the P(win | in-game performance) I've been posting each week and thought I would share with the rest of the class. It's a simple logistic regression model that calculates ln(p / 1-p), so any of you can try it at home.

Below is the set of weights, B, a Nx1 matrix. Take your matrix of inputs X, where X is an MxN matrix of M games with N inputs.

P(win) = e^(B*X) / ( e^(B*X) + 1 )

Bias coeffiecient 0.25522 (Bias input is an input always equal to 1)
Home rush off YPC 0.36376
Away rush off YPC -0.28054
Home pass off YPA (includes sacks as pass atts) 0.60824
Away pass off YPA - 0.64551
Home sack rate allowed -0.0091494
Away sack rate allowed 0.0098494
Home third down off. conversion rate 0.037002
Away third down off. conversion rate -0.042268
Home penalty yards -0.016932
Away penalty yards 0.016868
Home int. rate thrown -0.25664
Away int. rate thrown 0.27914
Home fum. rate given (includes all fumbles not just lost fumbles, rate is by completions and rush attempts) - 0.26644
Away fum. rate given 0.28195

Read More......

The Value of Homefield Advantage, 2007 Week 2

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

All Games
Home Team Win %: 62.5000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.3438

Interconference
Home Team Win %: 62.5000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.0000

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 70.0000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 7.2000

Intradivsion
Home Team Win %: 57.1429%
Avg. Final Score Margin: -0.9286

Read More......

Projected Final Standings - Week 2, 2007

Using the projected win probabilities from the logistic regression power rankings, I estimated which games each team would win on the rest of their respective schedules. And then I summed the projected wins with the actual wins so far to get their projected win totals. The teams are sorted by division.

Projected Final Standings
Team	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	2
MIA	5
NE	16
NYJ	2
AFC North
BAL	9
CIN	6
CLE	8
PIT	14
AFC South
HOU	15
IND	14
JAX	8
TEN	6
AFC West
DEN	14
KC	7
OAK	3
SD	3
NFC East
DAL	14
NYG	3
PHI	9
WAS	11
NFC North
CHI	5
DET	10
GB	8
MIN	10
NFC South
ATL	4
CAR	9
NO	0
TB	12
NFC West
ARI	11
STL	4
SF	3
SEA	11

Read More......

Week 3 Predictions

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
BUF @ NE	21.8529	95.4819
MIA @ NYJ	0.2227	54.6927
ARI @ BAL	-1.1325	51.1005
SF @ PIT	14.1197	87.2559
IND @ HOU	3.3611	58.3286
JAX @ DEN	14.4308	85.0911
MIN @ KC	1.1924	53.7913
CLE @ OAK	2.4606	48.9627
DET @ PHI	3.1926	61.5361
NYG @ WAS	10.2739	78.4863
DAL @ CHI	-5.2192	32.4093
SD @ GB	4.5756	69.4519
CAR @ ATL	-4.7731	30.4124
TEN @ NO	-10.0608	19.3533
STL @ TB	4.0617	67.3059
CIN @ SEA	4.1900	62.2327

Read More......

Power Rankings 2007, Week 2

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The first power rankings use linear regression to predict the final score margins of each such game. The score you see along with the rankings is the sum of all of those expected margins.

The second power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

Power Rankings, Linear Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Point Differential
1	NE	11.0563
2	DEN	10.2278
3	PIT	8.9073
4	HOU	7.0583
5	IND	6.3842
6	DAL	6.0052
7	TB	3.3885
8	WAS	2.8176
9	CAR	2.5193
10	DET	2.2201
11	ARI	1.9209
12	MIN	1.8642
13	JAX	1.2880
14	SEA	1.2395
15	PHI	1.1398
16	BAL	0.0029
17	TEN	-0.8355
18	GB	-1.1397
19	CLE	-1.2982
20	CIN	-1.9019
21	STL	-1.9600
22	KC	-3.1525
23	CHI	-3.2782
24	SD	-3.2908
25	NYG	-3.9060
26	SF	-3.9773
27	MIA	-4.1056
28	ATL	-4.2476
29	OAK	-6.6433
30	NYJ	-6.7256
31	BUF	-8.5525
32	NO	-13.0250

Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	12.7821
2	DEN	12.3057
3	PIT	11.9186
4	IND	11.2294
5	HOU	11.0758
6	DAL	10.9747
7	TB	9.6725
8	CAR	9.4341
9	DET	9.1868
10	WAS	9.1101
11	ARI	9.0378
12	MIN	9.0016
13	JAX	8.8980
14	PHI	8.7440
15	SEA	8.4853
16	BAL	8.2007
17	TEN	7.4589
18	CLE	7.3766
19	GB	7.2951
20	CIN	6.8305
21	KC	6.8023
22	CHI	6.7402
23	STL	6.7007
24	NYG	6.2975
25	SF	6.2020
26	MIA	6.0230
27	SD	5.9910
28	ATL	5.5020
29	OAK	5.1785
30	NYJ	4.9122
31	BUF	4.2329
32	NO	2.3994

Read More......